The most interesting storyline heading into the 2025 NFL season was whether one of the AFC’s elite quarterbacks could finally sneak past Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Eagles demolished the Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX, and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Buffalo’s Josh Allen appeared primed to take advantage of any slide by the Chiefs.
The Chiefs’ slide indeed materialized, but those other contenders let the opportunity pass them by. Kansas City, Baltimore and Cincinnati all missed the playoffs, and the Broncos defeated Josh Allen in the divisional round. Instead of Mahomes versus Allen or Jackson in the conference championship, the game pitted New England’s Drake Maye against Denver’s Jarrett Stidham (against the snow). Jackson, Burrow and Allen have enjoyed prolific careers, but their wait for the validation of a Lombardi trophy extended another year when a prime opportunity fell in their laps.
These are the seven storylines that intrigue me most this season, along with my regular season and playoff predictions. Enjoy!
- Are the Los Angeles Rams a Super team?
The Rams were the closest team to knocking off the Seattle Seahawks in the playoffs, losing 31-27 in Seattle in the NFC Championship. Los Angeles responded by adding not one but FOUR elite defenders to its lineup, including trading for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in superstar pass rusher Myles Garrett and luring three-time DPOY Aaron Donald out of retirement. Defensive backs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson will shore up the secondary. The Rams are the heaviest favorites to win the Super Bowl in decades, and they also happen to boast the reigning MVP at quarterback, Matthew Stafford. Watch out.
- New coaches lead contenders
This week is the start of new eras in Buffalo, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, after years of playoff failures led to head-coaching changeups this offseason. Aside from new Steelers head coach Mike McCarthy, who is one of the most accomplished current NFL head coaches and a Super Bowl champion, the other two new head coaches are in their first seasons leading an NFL franchise, and the pressure is immediate. Buffalo’s Joe Brady has plenty of familiarity with the Bills as their previous offensive coordinator, and he will look to coax an MVP season — and a terrific playoff run — out of the game’s top quarterback, Josh Allen. In Baltimore, Kevin Minter replaces 18-year head coach John Harbaugh and is aiming to lead a defensive resurgence for the Ravens, while elevating the offensive trio of Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers in big moments. Neither of the latter coaches will have much of a grace period — it’s Super Bowl or bust.
- Is Seattle an underdog again?
With the Rams in their division, it’s no wonder the Seahawks are not favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Seattle also lost key components of its defense, Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker signed with the Chiefs and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak left to become the head coach of the Raiders. That said, the Seahawks overcame more question marks last season in their jump from outside the playoffs to a dominant Super Bowl win, and the most essential parts of last season’s run are still in place. Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba should have another electric season, and I’d expect quarterback Sam Darnold to cut down on his NFC-worst 14 interceptions. Defensively, head coach Mike Macdonald is arguably the best defensive mind in the league (and now has a Super Bowl title to prove it), and the defense should be at the same level as last season, even if they lack big names like Garrett and Donald. The Super Bowl curse has doomed champions over the last few decades, but Seattle is a strong candidate to be just as dominant of a force this year.
- Can the Cowboys’ defense catch up?
Led by quarterback Dak Prescott and resurgent seasons from new additions George Pickens and Javonte Williams, the Cowboys averaged the second-most yards in the NFL in 2025 and validated the hiring of Brian Schottenheimer as head coach. But Dallas also was the only team in the league to surrender 30 or more points, and the net result was a 7-9-1 record and no playoffs. Dallas was aggressive in addressing its defensive woes, hiring a new defensive coordinator in Christian Parker, drafting safety Caleb Downs and adding Super Bowl 50 MVP Von Miller. The defense won’t be top 10, but even an improvement to the middle of the pack should spell a playoff berth for the Cowboys. Dallas needs some questions answered before becoming a definitive Super Bowl contender, but this team has upside.
- Defenses will look to win another championship
The Seahawks boasted the offensive player of the year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and had their running back win Super Bowl MVP, but their defense was the true star of their Super Bowl run. Elite units from different pockets of the NFL are hoping to replicate that formula and overcome their own offensive question marks. Houston is the best candidate to follow suit, as the Texans bolstered a unit that allowed the fewest yards in the NFL last season and joined the Seahawks as one of two teams to allow fewer than 18 points per game. Another AFC contender, the Denver Broncos, has a standout unit that nearly carried the Broncos to the Super Bowl last season and is led by 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II. In the NFC, I’ll throw the Eagles and Rams into the mix, although each has the roster to win definitively on either side of the ball. While the Cowboys, Bears and Bengals are aiming to overpower teams with 30+ point performances, defenses could very well reign again this season.
- Who wins the NFC North?
The NFC North was the most interesting division in football last year, with all four teams finishing with winning records and two, the Bears and Packers, making the playoffs. All four have compelling cases to win the division in 2026 and pose threats in the playoffs. The excitement level in Chicago is sky-high after quarterback Caleb Williams led a six-win improvement and a playoff victory last year, but the defense is a major question mark. Green Bay is an annual playoff participant, though pass rusher Micah Parsons’ health and the state of the run game in running back Josh Jacobs’ absence are two legitimate questions. Detroit is looking to offset last year’s shocking regression out of the playoff picture with a bounce-back season, and the Vikings are looking to former Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray to bring a strong roster to the promised land of the playoffs. The division doesn’t have the top teams of the NFC West, but multiple teams should come out of the North this season.
- Super Bowl race feels wide open
Along with proving defenses can rule the NFL again, the Seahawks’ run was a testament to teams finding their contender form quickly. Their opponent in the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots, improved from four to 14 wins under coach Mike Vrabel. Which teams outside of the top 10 in Super Bowl likelihood could surprise the league? According to The Athletic’s 2026 Playoff Simulator, the Rams have a league-best 18 percent chance to win the Super Bowl, followed by the Seahawks, Bills, Ravens, Patriots, Eagles, 49ers, Bengals, Lions, Chiefs and Packers. So I’m ruling those teams out. The next six are the Texans, Chargers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Broncos and Bears have compelling Super Bowl cases and franchise quarterbacks in place. (Also, how are the Broncos, the team that secured the AFC’s top seed last year and then traded for a new WR1 only at 15 and three percent to win the Super Bowl?). I’d be shocked if one of the teams in the bottom half of the league win it all, but the Vikings, Colts, Steelers and Buccaneers bear watching.
Before I get to my entire projections, here are seven wild things I predict will happen in the 2026 season:
- The Buffalo Bills will miss the playoffs in the AFC.
- The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers will miss the playoffs in the NFC.
- Four 10-win teams will miss the playoffs.
- Justin Herbert will get his first playoff win, and it will be in the divisional round as the 1 seed.
- Ravens head coach Jesse Minter will be, by a wide margin, the most successful first-year coach.
- The Seahawks will not make the NFC championship game.
- Carolina and New Orleans will both finish with winning records.
And now, for the full reveal of my 2026 predictions! I projected the outcomes of each of the 272 games. These were the results:
AFC East
- New England Patriots — 11-6, 4th seed
- Buffalo Bills — 10-7, miss playoffs
- New York Jets — 3-14, miss playoffs
- Miami Dolphins — 2-15, miss playoffs
AFC North
- Baltimore Ravens — 12-5, 2nd seed
- Cincinnati Bengals — 10-7, 7th seed
- Pittsburgh Steelers — 7-10, miss playoffs
- Cleveland Browns — 2-15, miss playoffs
AFC South
- Houston Texans — 12-5, 3rd seed
- Jacksonville Jaguars — 10-7, miss playoffs
- Tennessee Titans — 5-12, miss playoffs
- Indianapolis Colts — 5-12, miss playoffs
AFC West
- Los Angeles Chargers — 12-5, 1st seed
- Denver Broncos — 11-6, 5th seed
- Kansas City Chiefs — 11-6, 6th seed
- Las Vegas Raiders — 3-14, miss playoffs
NFC East
- Philadelphia Eagles, 12-5, 2nd seed
- Dallas Cowboys, 11-6, 6th seed
- New York Giants, 6-11, miss playoffs
- Washington Commanders, 6-11, miss playoffs
NFC North
- Detroit Lions, 12-5, 3rd seed
- Chicago Bears, 11-6, 7th seed
- Green Bay Packers, 10-7, miss playoffs
- Minnesota Vikings, 8-9, miss playoffs
NFC South
- Carolina Panthers, 10-7, 4th seed
- New Orleans Saints, 9-8, miss playoffs
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-10, miss playoffs
- Atlanta Falcons, 5-12, miss playoffs
NFC West
- Los Angeles Rams, 13-4, 1st seed
- Seattle Seahawks, 12-5, 5th seed
- San Francisco 49ers, 10-7, miss playoffs
- Arizona Cardinals, 4-13, miss playoffs
Wild Card Round
2 Baltimore Ravens over 7 Cincinnati Bengals
6 Kansas City Chiefs over 3 Houston Texans
5 Denver Broncos over 4 New England Patriots
7 Chicago Bears over 2 Philadelphia Eagles
6 Dallas Cowboys over 3 Detroit Lions
5 Seattle Seahawks over 4 Carolina Panthers
Divisional Round
1 Los Angeles Chargers over 6 Kansas City Chiefs
2 Baltimore Ravens over 5 Denver Broncos
1 Los Angeles Rams over 7 Chicago Bears
6 Dallas Cowboys over 5 Seattle Seahawks
Conference Championship
Baltimore Ravens over Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams over Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl LXI
Baltimore Ravens over Los Angeles Rams
MVP: Lamar Jackson
Riker's Block 