Nothing differentiates the NFL’s haves and have-nots quite like elite quarterbacks — and the NFL media doesn’t shy away from that narrative. Everywhere fans look, the importance of a great quarterback is drilled in.
The second season of the Netflix docuseries Quarterback followed passers Joe Burrow, Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins, who had three wildly different seasons and varying season outcomes. Netflix competitor HBO Max is streaming its Hard Knocks series on Buffalo Bills minicamp, where reigning MVP Josh Allen is a main character. Sports talk shows across the nation reacted to the Quarterback Tier rankings and reporting from The Athletic’s Mike Sando, which stratified the league’s starters into categories ranging from the five-player Tier One (“the team wins because of him”) to the one-man tier five (“the player is best suited as a backup”). And one of my most recent reads, The Q Factor by former Ravens coach Brian Billick, provided insight into how great quarterbacks can be identified and developed more effectively — and the challenges inherent in that process.
In starting up on my NFL projections for the 2025 season, I’m paying close attention to the men under center, too. The quarterbacks I find most interesting this year aren’t the Tier 1 faces of the franchise or the Tier 5 bottom-of-the-barrel throwers, but the middle ground. These are players who have major question marks in their game but could make the difference between a coveted playoff berth and an early offseason. And in determining their team’s prospects, predicting those passers’ seasons is a great place to start.
I’ve chosen 10 quarterbacks to examine that could make or break their respective franchise’s prospects of reaching the postseason. Whether due to young age, inconsistency, a checkered medical history or a change of scenery, these passers are unknown commodities with sky-high stakes in 2025 — each of their teams has a real shot at the postseason if the season breaks right. I’ve ranked each based on their standing in the QB Tiers (shoutout to The Athletic):
- Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
2024 Stats: 8 of 17 games played, 64.7 completion percentage, 1,978 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 247.3 passing yards per game, 45.3 ESPN QBR
Biggest Question Mark: Big game performance
Outlook: Two years removed from a runner-up finish in MVP voting, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is aiming to get the Cowboys back in the playoff conversation. Poor playoff performances have plagued Prescott throughout his career, but with Dallas backsliding in 2024 and replacing head coach Mike McCarthy, just getting to the playoffs will be an accomplishment in itself. Prescott has a high-ceiling group of receivers led by CeeDee Lamb, trade acquisition George Pickens and tight end Jake Ferguson, but the running backs group may be the league’s worst unit and head coach Brian Schottenheimer is unproven.
To return the Cowboys to the playoffs and earn a chance to reverse his postseason narrative, Prescott will have to play at his best against strong competition. He’ll have plenty of opportunities: the Cowboys travel to Philadelphia to take on the defending Super Bowl champions in the regular season’s first game, and tilts against the Packers, Broncos, Commanders, Chiefs, Vikings, Lions and Eagles again will determine whether 2025 will have a merrier outcome. If healthy, Prescott will put up numbers with a familiar head coach and revamped receiving group, but as the league’s highest-paid player, the standard is playoffs or bust.
- Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
2024 Stats: 15 of 17 games played, 63.1 completion percentage, 3,389 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 225.9 passing yards per game, 69.3 ESPN QBR
Biggest Question Mark: Chemistry with receiving corps
Outlook: The Packers have been blessed with stellar quarterback play over the past decades, but introducing new passers under center has never been a smooth transition. Brett Favre came to the Packers in a trade with Atlanta — a major overpay, to some NFL experts — and proceeded to lead the Packers to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in the 90s, while the promise of Aaron Rodgers after three seasons as a backup forced Favre to the Jets and Vikings for the final years of his careers.
Jordan Love’s introduction has been rockier than either of those franchise legends. After his arrival as a first-round draft pick convinced the Packers to move on from Rodgers, Love has had an up-and-down start to his time as Green Bay’s leader. The Packers have made the playoffs in consecutive seasons, but Love has one playoff win to show for his efforts and has missed games due to injury (he is currently dealing with a thumb injury this preseason). Love taking the next step could make the difference between treading water in the NFC’s toughest division and emerging as a Super Bowl contender. The key to Love elevating his game is his chemistry with his receivers. No Packer caught more than 55 passes or reached the 900-receiving-yard milestone in 2024, statistics that will have to change for Green Bay to become a dynamic passing attack. The arrival of first-round pick Matthew Golden from Texas is a promising addition, but Love’s connection with young receivers Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs will also be crucial.
- Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
2024 Stats: 17 out of 17 games played, 68.8 completion percentage, 3,851 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 226.5 passing yards per game, 66.5 ESPN QBR
Biggest Question Mark: Strong finish
Outlook: I’m sky high on the Cardinals this year. The NFC West is a tightly contested but wide-open division, and Arizona might be best positioned to take the crown. The offense is loaded at the skill positions, with tight end Trey McBride, second-year wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. and running back James Conner, while the defense made legitimate upgrades and is poised to move from middle-of-the-pack to top ten. But the 2025 outcome will hinge on the performance of Kyler Murray, the no. 1 overall pick of the 2019 draft who has only one playoff game across his six pro seasons. Murray spearheaded the Cardinals’ bid at the playoffs last season, appearing in all 17 games and achieving a career high in ESPN QBR, but Murray’s performance tailed off at the end of the season as Arizona lost five matchups in a critical six-game stretch, including three NFC West matchups. With such an open window in the division, a healthy, consistent 2025 for Murray could be the differentiator in the NFC West race and give the Cardinals a legitimate chance to ascend to the Super Bowl contender status they envisioned when they drafted Murray over a half-decade ago.
- Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers
2024 Stats: 17 out of 17 games played, 63.0 completion percentage, 3,897 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 229.2 passing yards per game, 48.0 ESPN QBR
Biggest Question Mark: Physical ability
Outlook: Given how nightmarish Aaron Rodgers’ two-year stint with the New York Jets turned out, his setup in the Steel City looks ideal. Rodgers signed with the Steelers in the early summer and walks into a situation with a storied franchise, a new star receiver, a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Mike Tomlin that has never posted a losing record, a top-tier defense, a roster that made the playoffs last season and, maybe most importantly, no viable younger alternative at quarterback to challenge Rodgers for playing time. If the Steelers make the postseason in the crowded AFC, it will be in large part because Rodgers turned back the clock. Now 41 years old, Rodgers hasn’t looked like a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback in any of the past three years and will have to do more with less, given the downgrades at receiver from his Jets team last year to the Steelers’ current roster. Rodgers is one of the smartest passers in NFL history, but counting on a Peyton Manning-type run in which a top-tier roster lifts a quarterback with diminished physical abilities to a storybook ending is foolish. Rodgers showed enough as the Jets’ starter to merit a starting position in 2025 and give Pittsburgh confidence in its playoff hopes, but his physical skills are the biggest question mark surrounding the Steelers franchise.
- Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
2024 Stats: 11 out of 17 games played, 72.9 completion percentage, 2,867 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 260.6 passing yards per game, 60.3 ESPN QBR
Biggest Question Mark: Health
Outlook: The drop-off between Miami offensive performances with Tagovailoa on the field and those with his backups were the story of the Dolphins’ 2025 season — the contrast was night and day. Tagovailoa has played in every game in just one of his first five seasons as a pro, and the Dolphins’ significant commitment to Tagovailoa makes his health essential to their contention hopes.
Tagovailoa has established himself as one of the game’s most accurate passers and has three speedy weapons in running back De’Von Achane, wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, so if he plays all 17 games and is healthy come playoff time, the Dolphins should be the second-best team in the AFC East and a real wild card contender. Otherwise, Miami’s regression from last year is likely to continue and the futures of Tagovailoa, Hill and head coach Mike McDaniel in Miami could be in question.
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
2024 Stats: 10 of 17 games played, 60.6 completion percentage, 2,045 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 204.5 passing yards per game, 59.5 ESPN QBR
Biggest Question Mark: Consistency
Outlook: Lawrence’s 2024 season may have been the worst of any player on this list. The former no. 1 pick regressed significantly, missed almost half the season with injury and saw his head coach, offensive guru Doug Pederson, fired by season’s end.
Thankfully for Lawrence, the Jags aren’t giving up yet. Jacksonville moved up to acquire wide receiver/defensive back Travis Hunter out of Colorado and will pair him with rookie sensation Brian Thomas Jr., while the head coaching search, which culminated in the hiring of Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen, placed a premium on Lawrence’s development. The Jaguars are only a couple seasons removed from a playoff win, and the AFC South is theirs for the taking if Lawrence has a bounce-back season. Aside from shoulder issues that sidelined him in 2024, Lawrence’s drop-off in accuracy (65.6 to 60.6 percent) and performances against playoff contenders are on-field question marks, but Jacksonville’s efforts to restore his confidence and continue his progression as a passer are encouraging signs.
- Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
2024 Stats: 17 of 17 games played, 66.2 completion percentage, 4,319 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 254.1 passing yards per game, 60.4 ESPN QBR
Biggest Question Mark: Cohesion
Outlook: In contrast, Sam Darnold enjoyed the best 2024 season of these 10 passers. Viewed as a draft bust in his time in New York and Carolina, Darnold stepped into the starting role in Minnesota and exploded with a career year. The Darnold-led Vikings won 14 regular season games and came within a Week 18 victory of taking the NFC’s top seed, while the former USC quarterback received his first Pro Bowl nod for his breakout campaign. His reward? Minnesota let him walk in favor of 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy.
Darnold could have found a worse landing spot than Seattle. The Seahawks are established playoff contenders under head coach Mike McDonald, and Seattle gives Darnold his first opportunity in years to be a team’s unchallenged starter. Wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba aren’t quite Justin Jefferson-level, but Darnold will not miss playing in the NFC North. Going off his 2024 season, Darnold could be an improvement over the more highly-paid Geno Smith, but the career overview prompts a more cautionary outlook. Whether due to Jefferson’s presence, Kevin O’Connell’s offensive mastery or Darnold’s own progression, he played in a different stratosphere than in his previous six seasons: his career-best in completion percentage jumped from 61.9 to 66.2, his touchdown total more than doubled from 17 to 35 and his passer rating and QBR improved by double digits year-over-year. Darnold stepped into Minnesota and turned them into contenders — can he do the same with less talent and a defensive-minded coaching staff?
- Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
2024 Stats: 17 of 17 games played, 62.5 completion percentage, 3,541 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 208.3 passing yards per game, 46.7 ESPN QBR
Biggest Question Mark: Infrastructure
Outlook: For a consensus no. 1 pick, Caleb Williams has endured a lot of adversity in his first year. Williams took a whopping 68 sacks in 17 games in his rookie year, and the hits also came in the standings: the Bears lost 10 games in a row, fired their head coach and tumbled to the bottom of the NFC.
Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels has lapped Williams through the first year of their career, but Williams has the supporting cast and personal skillset to make up ground. Wide receivers Rome Odunze and DJ Moore will team up with additions Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III, but Williams’ most promising addition is the hiring of head coach Ben Johnson, the prolific offensive coordinator of the division rival Lions. The offensive line has also been fortified after last year’s debacle, but Williams’ biggest obstacle was the franchise infrastructure and lack of support in his first year of NFL football. For a franchise that hasn’t reached the playoffs in consecutive seasons since 2005-06, optimizing Williams’ development is an excellent opportunity to reverse the prevailing narrative and ignite the Bears’ run at contention. Of all the quarterbacks on the list, I’m most cautious about projecting a jump from Williams given Chicago’s track record of development and Johnson stepping into his first season as a head coach, but the talent is there for an NFC North surprise this fall.
- Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
2024 Stats: 5 of 17 games played, 58.1 completion percentage, 775 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 245.6 passing yards per start, 51.0 ESPN QBR
Biggest Question Mark: Expanded sample size
Outlook: After hearing his name called as the eighth pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Michael Penix Jr. supplanted veteran and big-name free-agent acquisition Kirk Cousins and played his first games at the NFL level with the NFC South title hanging in the balance. Penix won his first game and lost his second and third starts in overtime, signaling that he was back to full health and capable of leading a talented Atlanta offense in 2025.
The Falcons bought into the promise by naming Penix, not Cousins, the starter for the coming year, but Penix’s limited sample size makes projecting his 2025 production less certain than most of his draft class counterparts. Though Penix is an unknown commodity as a pro passer, he’ll have strong run game support with running back Bijan Robinson and an experienced coaching staff to guide him. If Penix can display the passing skills that elevated him to a prime draft prospect and continue his development (while staving off Cousins), the Falcons will be in great position to contend with the Buccaneers for the NFC South title and entrench Penix as the face of their franchise.
- J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
2024 Stats: Did not play
Biggest Question Mark: Making the NFL leap
Outlook: If basing judgments of Michael Penix Jr. off three starts seemed premature and incomplete, take a look at J.J. McCarthy’s NFL resume: one missed season and preseason openers in 2024 and 2025. That, in conjunction with a decorated college career with Michigan and diligent study throughout the pass year, was enough for the Vikings to allow Sam Darnold to walk and entrust the franchise’s direction to McCarthy.
The second-year passer inherits an offense with the NFC’s best wide receiver and playmakers in the passing and rushing attacks, along with a stingy defense and a top-notch coaching staff. But what will McCarthy make of the opportunity? Considering that the NFC North packs together three 2024 playoff teams and the upstart Bears, McCarthy doesn’t have much margin for error in keeping pace, but 14 regular season wins, last year’s total, might be unrealistic for a young player still getting accustomed to the pro level. He also doesn’t have significant competition now that Darnold is with Seattle, giving him time to understand what works. If McCarthy’s first season as a starter is closer to Jayden Daniels/Bo Nix-level than Caleb Williams — a real possibility given the support he will receive in Minnesota — the Vikings are capable of proving 2024 was no fluke.
Riker's Block 