In the unlikeliest Super Bowl matchup in NFL history by the preseason odds, the Seattle Seahawks throttled the New England Patriots in Santa Clara, Calif. to capture their second Lombardi trophy and first since the 2013 season. Running back (and impending free agent) Kenneth Walker III led the way for the ‘Hawks with 27 carries for 135 yards and won Super Bowl MVP, but a defense that forced three Drake Maye turnovers and sacked Maye six times made the difference in a 29-13 Seattle rout. The game could only be called “enthralling” by punting aficionados — the teams combined for 15 punts — but the best team in the NFL won the championship in a satisfying, if anticlimactic, conclusion to a wild season.
I have thoughts.
I split my season between two outlets: Guerilla Sports with a column and newsletter for half of the season, and the Denver Broncos’ media team for the second half of the season and postseason. The outlet that was left out to dry in that was my own blog, Riker’s Block. No complaints at all, but I’m well overdue to share my thoughts on this NFL season, especially after loading up this offseason with columns and bold predictions. These are my myriad NFL thoughts following a season to remember.
PATRIOTS: My best prediction of the season was picking the Patriots to shock the NFL this season, which I laid out in a column on May 9 titled “Thanks to the NFL’s best offseason, the New England Patriots are ready to return to playoff contention.” I highlighted the arrival of Mike Vrabel as head coach, the revamping of the roster and a strong draft class to bolster the offense as reasons for optimism, while noting that the amount of improvement hinged on Drake Maye’s development. Well, Maye earned second-team All-Pro honors and nearly won league MVP, while the Patriots soared from four regular-season wins to 14 and won their first three playoff games. In my NFL preview, I doubled down and called Maye “an enticing breakout candidate with the potential to lead New England to a Wild Card spot.” I underestimated the Pats, projecting them at 10 wins and a wild-card round loss. Other strong predictions: naming the Jaguars as my other AFC breakout candidate (though I projected them to miss the playoffs at 9-8) and dropping the Commanders and Vikings out of the playoffs.
WRONG CALLS: I had a lot more red than green in reviewing my preseason picks. My Super Bowl LX pitted the Ravens and Lions. Both teams missed the playoffs. In total, I picked four of the seven AFC teams in the playoffs and three of the seven NFC teams in the playoffs. My worst division was the NFC West, where I predicted the Cardinals to win the division and the 49ers and Seahawks to miss the playoffs. Well, San Francisco and Seattle both made the divisional round and the Seahawks proved my fourth-place finish wrong by winning the whole thing. My projection skills were most exposed in the fact that I got only one of the final eight teams correct. So please don’t take my preseason predictions to Las Vegas in the future!
BRONCOS: The team I watched the most, for probably only the second time in my life, was the Denver Broncos. What a season it was. I projected the Broncos to win nine games but miss the playoffs, and instead they rocketed to 14-3 and sealed the AFC’s top seed and the AFC West. An 11-game win streak featuring wins over the past two Super Bowl participants and a record number of game-winning drives exhilarated Denver fans and put the league on notice, and the trend only continued in the Broncos’ first home playoff game in a decade, an overtime thriller over Josh Allen and the Bills. What went right for the Broncos? The offseason pickups of Talanoa Hufanga, J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey hit, and the Broncos boasted two All-Pros on the offensive line and two more in the defensive front seven. Denver accumulated a franchise record in sacks and led the league in the stat by a staggering 11 sacks, while quarterback Bo Nix played lights-out in the fourth quarter. The defense played its best game in the AFC Championship, but Nix’s injury in the divisional round and wild weather conditions hindered the Broncos from reaching double-digit points against the Patriots in a 10-7 loss.
Would the Broncos have reached the Super Bowl if Nix was healthy? I believe they would have. Per ESPN’s QBR metric, which rates quarterbacks on a scale of 1-100 based on their situational play and statistics, Nix performed above a score of 30 in 16 of his 18 starts (a 15.6 clunker against the Titans in Week 1 and a 25.5 showing against the Raiders on Thursday Night Football were the exceptions). In his first start in two years, backup Jarrett Stidham failed to reach a score of 20, finishing at 19.6 after recording 133 passing yards and a touchdown and interception against the Patriots. The offense looked off, and Stidham’s ability to evade the Patriots’ pass rush and keep plays alive was diminished compared to Nix (which makes sense given Nix’s major advantage in live-game reps). Everything broke right for the Broncos this season… until it broke in the worst way with Nix’s season-ender and running back J.K. Dobbins’ absence. Nix can develop further and the trenches will continue to be a strength, so Denver will continue to be a force in seasons to come.
AWARDS: I agreed with the final results of the awards voting. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford won his first MVP at age 38 thanks to a season in which he led the NFL in passing touchdowns (46, with the second-place finisher at 34) and passing yardage (by a lead of 143 yards) and kept the Rams afloat in a competitive division that placed three teams in the NFC’s Final Four. Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett was a no-brainer for Defensive Player of the Year after he set the single-season sack record with 23 sacks. Coach of the Year was a fascinating award because of so many worthy candidates. Mike Vrabel was a deserving option for boosting the Patriots by 10 wins, but credit should also go to his offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels (evidenced by McDaniels’ assistant of the year win) and the MVP-level play of Drake Maye, who was on a different side of the ball than Vrabel’s specialty. I would have voted for either Jacksonville’s Liam Cohen or Chicago’s Ben Johnson, who took over franchises that were in more disarray and reversed course for quarterbacks coming off awful 2025 seasons. Speaking of that, I would have given Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence significant consideration for Comeback Player of the Year given that he came back from both injury and abysmal play in previous seasons — one of my favorite stories of the entire year. Rounding out the list, I agreed with Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba for Offensive Player of the Year and both Rookie of the Year winners.
FIRINGS: 10 teams moved on from previous head coaches and welcomed new leaders into their training facilities this winter. The most shocking of those shifts came in traditional AFC powers: John Harbaugh in Baltimore, Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh and Sean McDermott in Buffalo. Harbaugh and Tomlin won Super Bowls with their respective teams, while Tomlin and McDermott made the playoffs. The coaches boast 33 playoff appearances between the three of them. 33!!! But each franchise had a case to seek new leadership (Tomlin stepped down and was not fired). Baltimore and Buffalo have underperformed in the playoffs with MVP quarterbacks and failed to reach the AFC Championship in a year in which the AFC was WIDE OPEN and did not have the Chiefs in the picture. Harbaugh’s departure is close to my heart considering how great of a leader he proved to be since arriving in 2008, but blown leads and playoff collapses in recent seasons demonstrated that his effectiveness may have waned in Charm City. Plus, the Ravens were the NFL’s most disappointing team in 2025, even before missing the playoffs on the regular season’s final play. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh did make the playoffs but hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season.
All three teams should be in the playoff mix next season with new coaches: Jesse Minter in Baltimore, Joe Brady in Buffalo and Mike McCarthy in Pittsburgh. I’d rank those three coaches in that order in how I believe they will fare as head coaches. Each coach definitely has work to do to catch back up with the AFC’s new powerhouse teams. I will add this — I’m surprised that Cincinnati’s Zac Taylor is the only coach in the AFC North to return to his team. The results have not been there the past two seasons, and the defense has not shown any upward momentum. Joe Burrow is still an elite quarterback, but wouldn’t the same logic that shook up Baltimore and Buffalo apply to a less successful Bengals franchise? Then again, the Bengals have a history of patience with their head coaches. I just don’t see as much postseason upside with the Bengals as I might have if they landed a top coach this offseason that could serve as a new voice in the locker room.
DALLAS: This would not be a Riker’s Block NFL post if I did not talk about the Dallas Cowboys. What to make of the 2025 NFL season? First, I am not surprised with the Cowboys outcome of missing the playoffs with a 7-9-1 record. I believed Dak Prescott would have a strong season because of the continuity under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer and his trio of passing weapons, and he met those expectations by finishing third in passing yards, fourth in passing touchdowns and fifth in ESPN’s QBR metric. Running back Javonte Williams and wide receiver George Pickens were pleasant surprises as offseason additions, and the offense as a whole ranked second of the 32 NFL teams in yardage per game. The defense was putrid, and that was also to be expected. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus was one-and-done, but the trade of superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons made his task of coaxing average play out of the unit almost impossible. Indeed, the Cowboys’ defense was the only unit in the NFL to give up more than 30 points per game and was the culprit in key games against legitimate playoff teams. Dallas gave up 40 points in a tie to Green Bay, 44 points in a loss to Denver (I witnessed it, and it was BAD), 44 in a loss to Detroit, and 34 in consecutive weeks to the Vikings and Chargers. The best moment of the season came in a 24-21 comeback win over the Eagles that kept the Cowboys’ playoff hopes alive, but they did not last for long. Is Schottenheimer the guy at head coach? The returns in his first season were encouraging — especially from a culture-building standpoint — but losses to Arizona and Minnesota were brutal and the defense remains a major question mark heading into the offseason.
SEAHAWKS: How could I not discuss the Super Bowl champions? I’ll be honest first: I did not see their title coming. Mike Macdonald established an elite defense in his first year, but I thought the NFC West competition would dull that edge. I also did not foresee Sam Darnold leading the NFL in turnovers and STILL putting a Pro Bowl-caliber season together. Jaxon Smith-Njigba took the Seahawks to another level, but the defense was the differentiator. That is the regular season portion of proving John wrong. In the playoffs, Seattle played its best ball. The Seahawks became the first team in NFL history to win the Super Bowl and not turn the ball over once in the same playoff tournament — a major objective given Darnold’s propensity for carelessness with the ball. Seattle embarrassed San Francisco and New England, and though the Rams pushed the ‘Hawks to the brink in a 31-27 NFC Championship, Darnold’s 346-yard, three-touchdown performance offset the defense’s off-day and confirmed the former USC star as one of the best NFL redemption stories of the past decade. I’m not sold on the Seahawks as a dynasty in the making, but they deserved to win the Super Bowl and ABSOLUTELY proved me wrong with elite defense, adept coaching and elevated play in the postseason. The lesson: believe in teams who can use their strength at an elite level and don’t count out journeymen in the right situation.
BAD TEAMS: I was at my best in predictions in picking the worst teams. I nailed the Jets, Browns, Raiders, Giants and Saints finishing in last place and named four of those five teams as my worst five teams heading into 2025 (I projected the fifth, the Titans, to only win five games and they won three, so I was not far off there). But last season, two of the top five teams in the draft order (and lowest in the standings) made the playoffs, with the Patriots and Jaguars winning their division. Which bottom-five team has the best chance to make the leap in 2026? I’m going with the New York Giants, who will pick fifth in April’s NFL Draft after a 4-13 record this season. My rationale: Rookie of the Year finalist Jaxson Dart, running back Cam Skattebo and wide receiver Malik Nabers make up one of the league’s best young trios and will each be in either his second or third season, while the defensive duo of sackmaster Brian Burns and Defensive Rookie of the Year finalist Abdul Carter highlight a promising defense. On top of that, former Ravens coach John Harbaugh takes over and should provide the organization with the structure and guidance it has lacked since Tom Coughlin left in the late 2010s. Will the Giants win the Super Bowl next season? I’ll give that a definitive “NO.” But a wild-card berth is a real possibility, and an NFC East title is not out of the question if Dart can continue his development and stay healthy.
QUARTERBACK MOVES: 2025 declared clear winners and losers in the offseason quarterback carousel. The Seahawks came out as the biggest winner in the Sam Darnold domino effect, as the team Darnold left regressed with second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy and the team that the Seahawks traded their previous quarterback to, the Raiders, finished with the league’s worst record with Geno Smith. Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Raiders HC Pete Carroll are out of work in large part because the new quarterback situations did not work out. Aaron Rodgers to the Steelers surprisingly culminated in an AFC North title for Pittsburgh, while Colts quarterback Daniel Jones was a revelation the first half of the season (and Philip Rivers became the must-see story of the second half). Justin Fields flopped in New York. Rookie quarterbacks Tyler Shough, Jaxson Dart, Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward fell well short of the stellar rookie campaigns of Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix the previous season.
What moves are possible this offseason? I’d be interested to see Joe Burrow go to the Vikings and join a franchise that, for all its uncertainty at quarterback, still finished ahead of the Lions and with a winning record in 2025. It’s unlikely given the hesitance to trade top-five quarterbacks, but Cincinnati is playoff-ready only at the quarterback and wide receiver positions and is not on an encouraging trajectory, while Burrow to Minnesota would pit No. 9 against Caleb Williams, Jordan Love and Jared Goff on a regular basis. For quarterbacks I’m expecting to move around, Justin Fields, Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Malik Willis, Daniel Jones and Kirk Cousins make the list, and Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson make the cut as prospective starters that can go in the first round of the draft. Mendoza and Willis are the two names that excite me the most of the bunch, as lower-cost options (Mendoza because of a rookie deal, Willis because of his current backup status) that could believably lead a team to the playoffs next season. I’ll be keeping an eye on Minnesota, Miami, Pittsburgh, Arizona, the Jets, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Atlanta and Indianapolis as players in the quarterback market. Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay is a situation to monitor as well.
CONTENDERS: Do I trust the NFL’s new blood that took over the league in 2025 — the Patriots, Seahawks, Broncos and Rams — to return to contention, or for the older wave of the Chiefs, Ravens, Eagles, 49ers, Bills and Lions to seize back control next season? Or could an entirely new foursome play next January for the rights to play for a Super Bowl title in Los Angeles? I think it will be a mix of the three. Health is the biggest concern for the Rams and Broncos, but the Seahawks will stage a serious title defense in 2026. From the next category, I see the Chiefs’ disastrous season as an opportunity for them to truly reload and figure out Mahomes Supporting Cast 2.0, and I could see coaching changes in Baltimore, Buffalo and Philly paying off major dividends. I can see this year’s Wild Card Round losers taking another step next season, but to honor Super Bowl LX having two non-playoff teams in 2024 make it to the Big Game, here are two longshots I can envision making the jump: the Buccaneers and Chargers.
Let me make my Way-Too-Early playoff predictions for 2026. In the AFC, I’m taking the Patriots, Ravens, Jaguars and Chargers to win their divisions, while the Chiefs, Broncos and Bengals eke out spots as wild cards. The NFC bracket will feature the Seahawks, Saints, Packers and Eagles as division winners, with the Lions, 49ers and Giants filling out the 14-team bracket. Way-Too-Early Super Bowl prediction for Los Angeles: Packers-Chiefs for all the marbles.
Riker's Block 