Riker Report: Report cards for the 16 teams on the outside of the playoff picture

When NFL teams make an early-round draft selection or a headline-grabbing free agency signing, experts are quick to assess the transaction and slap on a grade. Those grades may not take into account the team’s decision-making process, the fit with the team or the player’s potential for growth, and they can become fodder for some of the most fun cold takes.

Handing out grades after the body of work of an entire regular season, on the other hand, is more indicative. The phrase “you’re only as good as your record says you are” bears some truth in the 18-game regular season. Each season includes its ups and downs, but the teams that missed out on the postseason have no one but themselves to blame. And unlike criticizing a team for a shocking draft choice or seemingly lopsided trade, a 3-14 season can be called nothing other than terrible — the team will admit as much if they have meaningful standards.

In lieu of the usual Riker Report structure, I’m spending the last two weeks of the regular season grading each team’s regular season. This week, I’m going with the 16 teams who have either been eliminated or are headed in that direction with a week left on the schedule. Spoiler alert: these grades are not ones that would have earned my parents’ approval if I brought them home on a report card. I’ve also selected one game from each team’s season that sums up their season well, from key turning points to emblematic disasters to rivalry games gone awry. Next week, I’ll take the glass-half-full teams and assess their regular-season performances ahead of their prospective playoff runs. 

For the half of the NFL teams that did not see their playoff dreams come true, let’s take a look at what went wrong.

New York Jets (4-12, third in AFC East)

Grade: F. If the Jets’ 2023 season was a nightmare, 2024 was worse. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers lasted just four snaps in 2023, but the “what if” and the stellar play of the defense was enough to get Jets fans through the cold New Jersey winter and generate hype for the Jets as a legitimate contender in ‘24. This season, the Jets’ faithful got to see what a healthy season of Aaron Rodgers looks like, and it was quite possibly one of the worst Jets seasons in recent history. Head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas did not survive the season, and even a blockbuster trade for Davante Adams did little to right the ship. After 2023, the Jets had the luxury of pressing the reset button and running back a team they felt was primed for playoff contention. After this season, New York is left without a direction and grasping to the hope that 2024 was as bad as it’s going to get.

2024 in a Nutshell: Broncos 10, Jets 9 (9/29/24) — Denver held on to win a low-scoring affair and emerge as a playoff contender, while New York’s highly-touted offense fell flat in a reversal of last season’s outcome.

New England Patriots (3-13, fourth in AFC East)

Grade: C+. The Patriots are in pole position for the number 1 pick in the NFL Draft, which is great in terms of draft positioning but also indicative of a team that was so lackluster on the field that it ended up 32nd out of 32 teams in the NFL standings. But this year had its moments. New England opened up the Jerod Mayo era with a major upset of Cincinnati that had lasting effects on the AFC playoff picture, and quarterback Drake Maye showed positive signs in his half-season as a starter. Losing 13 (and possibly 14) games in a season is abysmal, but the Patriots did not have high short-term expectations and appear headed in a modestly positive direction.

2024 in a Nutshell: Jaguars 32, Patriots 16 (10/20/24). Some fireworks for Drake Maye in New England’s trip to Europe, but not enough heroics to knock off another contender for the draft’s top pick.

Cleveland Browns (3-13, fourth in AFC North)

Grade: D. After somehow making the playoffs with Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco at the helm, the Browns regressed significantly in 2024. Quarterback Deshaun Watson failed to play in more than seven regular season games for the third-straight season, and the results weren’t pretty when he was leading the charge in the first half of the season. While Cleveland’s defense made life rough for AFC contenders in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the Browns could not sustain any momentum on offense and never asserted themselves in the AFC playoff picture. What is the plan moving forward for this team, and will this defensive core make another run to the playoffs in upcoming seasons?

2024 in a Nutshell: Cowboys 33, Browns 17 (9/8/24). The Browns’ Week 1 debacle at home to a Cowboys team that struggled out of the gates set the tone for the season and for the offensive outputs to come.

Indianapolis Colts (7-9, second in AFC South)

Grade: D+. Three quarterback changes and two terrible December performances defined the Colts’ season, which included flashes of contention but did not provide much reason for optimism in the coming years. Indianapolis couldn’t take advantage of the league’s weakest division to at least seal a playoff spot, while second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson moved in and out of the lineup due to injuries and inconsistent play. The Colts never projected as a contender on the level of the Ravens, Bills or Chiefs, but the ascensions of the Commanders and Broncos behind new coaches and rookie quarterbacks paid off handsomely for their respective franchises, while Indianapolis petered out in the stretch run. Indianapolis might finish with eight wins — more than most of the teams on this list — but its finish to the regular season was catastrophic.

2024 in a Nutshell: Giants 45, Colts 33 (12/29/24). With the playoffs very much a possibility, the Colts’ defense gave up 45 points to the 32nd-ranked team in the NFL and their third-string quarterback, Drew Lock.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12, third in AFC South)

Grade: D-. When I mentioned the Jaguars as dark horse Super Bowl contenders, I legitimately thought Jacksonville was capable of winning a playoff game. The AFC South turned out to be worse than predicted, rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. was sensational and the Jaguars were only a year removed from the divisional round. Still, that possibility did not pan out, as the Jags lost their first four games and quarterback Trevor Lawrence, fresh off a new mega-contract, played in just 10 games. The Jaguars’ defense wasn’t any better, allowing the most yards per game of any AFC team (387.5). Jacksonville may have had its best shot at capturing the AFC South title this season that it will have for a while, and the squad never looked the part.

2024 in a Nutshell: Browns 18, Jaguars 13 (9/15/24) — This Week 2 game was the most shocking loss from Jacksonville’s 0-4 start. The final score coming on a Trevor Lawrence safety was an especially brutal turn.

Tennessee Titans (3-13, fourth in AFC South)

Grade: C-. The Titans entered 2024 with a first-time head coach and scant playoff chances, so Tennessee’s season has a slightly more positive tinge than their rivals in Jacksonville. Tennessee should have no qualms about moving on from its Will Levis-Mason Rudolph quarterback room as long-term options and the Titans’ defense ranked as one of the league’s best statistically from start to finish. A top draft pick should infuse this team with much more starpower and identity, and head coach Brian Callahan isn’t on the hot seat yet. Still, 13-loss seasons are agonizing, which caps the upside of the Titans’ grade.

2024 in a Nutshell: Jets 24, Titans 17 (9/15/24) — The meme-worthy turnovers of quarterback Will Levis made the Titans nationally relevant for a sliver of the season, and some of his best (most egregious) work came in a Week 2 loss to the Jets.

Las Vegas Raiders (4-12, fourth in AFC West)

Grade: D+. When NFL teams turn to their interim head coach to be their main guy going forward, you at least hope that he can carry the positive momentum into the next season. The Raiders regressed under Antonio Pierce after their late-season successes in 2023, though a couple moments of contention made life interesting for Raider faithful. The story of the season was the injury-ravaged quarterbacks room, which featured Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder at points and never lifted Las Vegas into contention. A tough AFC West further tightened the Raiders’ margin for error. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers’ record-breaking season was a bright spot, at least.

2024 in a Nutshell: Chiefs 19, Raiders 17 (11/29/24) — On Black Friday, Las Vegas almost pulled off the upset of the season but was doomed by a late-game gaffe on a botched snap.

Dallas Cowboys (7-9, third in NFC East)

Grade: C-. The Cowboys were not set up to succeed this season after a dormant offseason and early-season injuries across the board. Dallas’ struggles at home were particularly pronounced and erased any chance of the Cowboys defending their NFC East title (man, does that feel like ages ago). I will say this in the Cowboys’ defense — they looked much better at the end of the season than the beginning, and a pair of NFC East wins on Thanksgiving week showed Dallas wasn’t going to wave the white flag on a disappointing season. The Cowboys will undoubtedly come into 2025 with dampened expectations, but that may not be the worst development for this crew.

2024 in a Nutshell: Saints 44, Cowboys 19 (9/15/24) — The first major “yikes” in a season full of them, this game was emblematic of the Cowboys’ home struggles and their growing pains following the departure of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.

New York Giants (3-13, fourth in NFC East)

Grade: D-. When your starting quarterback moves to your practice-squad defense and then to the Minnesota Vikings in the middle of the season, something is awry. The Giants appear headed for a reset this upcoming offseason, and although running back Tyrone Tracy and wide receiver Malik Nabers made history with more than 1,000 scrimmage yards apiece in their rookie seasons, New York is in a difficult spot in the NFC East. Philadelphia is the juggernaut of the division and Washington was the story of the year with their improvement, but the Giants’ malaise kept them firmly in the division’s cellar. New York also had to deal with their biggest offseason departure, running back Saquon Barkley, joining Philadelphia and running for over 2,000 yards. The cupboard isn’t bare, and their fellow stadium tenant arguably had a more disastrous 2024, but the Giants have a long way to go before sustained contention.

2024 in a Nutshell: Panthers 20, Giants 17 (11/10/24) — An overtime battle between two of the league’s weaker teams in Germany, this matchup included two Daniel Jones interceptions, a promising 10-point, fourth-quarter comeback by the Giants, and an ultimate letdown in the extra period.

Chicago Bears (4-12, fourth in NFC North)

Grade: F. 10-game losing streak sums this up the Bears’ season pretty well. Chicago had all the hype coming off HBO’s Hard Knocks series and the selection of quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick, and that hype was validated in the Bears’ 4-2 start. Chicago’s bewildering failed Hail Mary coverage in a last-second defeat to the Commanders kicked off the season’s death spiral, and the dysfunction reached an apex in Chicago’s mismanaged final minute against the division rival Lions on Thanksgiving — a lapse in judgment that cost head coach Matt Eberflus his role. The Bears’ highly-touted offense has put up 13 points or fewer in half of those 10 games, while the defense ranks 25th league-wide in yardage allowed per game and has given up more than a handful of 30-point performances. Williams hasn’t even been the weak link — he has absorbed 67 sacks so far, most in the NFL by a 15-sack margin. Much of the Bears’ young core will remain in place in future seasons, but the sudden reversal from talk of the league to Thanksgiving scraps is harrowing for a long-tortured fanbase. 

2024 in a Nutshell: Lions 23, Bears 20 (11/28/24) — In this aforementioned Thanksgiving disaster, Williams led an impressive potential go-ahead drive but only ran one play in the final 30 seconds of regulation, an ill-fated deep ball to Rome Odunze.

Atlanta Falcons (8-8, second in NFC South)

Grade: D+. They’re not technically out of it and earned a season sweep over the likely NFC South champion Buccaneers, but the Falcons had every chance to win their division and let that slip away. Even worse, Atlanta conceded that the offseason’s costliest signing, quarterback Kirk Cousins, does not have much of a future with the franchise by benching him for rookie Michael Penix in the regular season’s final weeks. The Falcons’ four-game skid in late autumn allowed the depleted Buccaneers to take back the division lead despite Atlanta’s divisional dominance, and a close loss to the Commanders on Sunday Night Football relegated the Falcons’ playoff hopes out of their control. Cousins figures to finish his debut season in Atlanta with a league-leading 16 interceptions in 14 games, and though the Falcons’ future has plenty of reasons for optimism, their 2024 was among the league’s most aggravating to watch.

2024 in a Nutshell: Broncos 38, Falcons 6 (11/17/24) — I’m selecting the game I attended because it showed the Falcons’ loss to New Orleans was no fluke and demonstrated a common theme: all three phases of the Falcons’ roster being outclassed by a legitimate playoff contender.

New Orleans Saints (5-11, third in NFC South)

Grade: D-. A midseason firing guarantees a low grade, but it’s the lack of optimism in any spot on the roster that seals a D-minus for the Saints. New Orleans’ 2-0 start proved to be a fleeting flash, as the Saints dropped their next seven games to fall out of playoff contention in a very winnable division. The losing streak cost head coach Dennis Allen his job and could spell the end of veteran quarterback Derek Carr’s time in the Big Easy. The Saints did not place a single player on the NFC’s Pro Bowl roster and regressed considerably on defense, conceding the third-most yards of any team. Between injuries, a lackluster roster and coaching changes, the Saints did not have it easy at all in 2024, though a full-scale makeover might be the best step toward a brighter future.

2024 in a Nutshell: Broncos 33, Saints 10 (10/17/24). At the time, New Orleans was still alive in the winnable NFC South — all they had to do to factor in was to stick around .500 ball. Instead, the Broncos came onto the Saints’ home turf and built a 33-3 lead on Thursday Night Football, giving head coach Sean Payton a convincing win over his former franchise.

Carolina Panthers (4-12, fourth in NFC South)

Grade: D+. Quarterback Bryce Young’s benching seemed to signal the end of his run as the face of the Panthers’ franchise, but the sophomore quarterback looked like a different player when he returned to the lineup at midseason. Young led winning efforts against the Saints and Giants in two of his first starts back under center, then commandeered an upset victory over the Cardinals to knock Arizona out of the playoffs. That being said, the Panthers looked like the worst team in football during the first half of the season and rank dead-last in points allowed and yardage allowed on defense. First-year head coach Dave Canales did enough to stick around for another season, but the Panthers’ fourth-place finish in the lowly NFC South sums up their season well.

2024 in a Nutshell: Buccaneers 26, Panthers 23 (12/1/24). One of the Panthers’ best efforts resulted in an agonizing defeat, as running back Chuba Hubbard’s overtime fumble cost Carolina a chance at a much-needed upset of the NFC South’s leading team.

Seattle Seahawks (9-7, second in NFC West)

Grade: B-. The Seahawks had every opportunity to win the NFC West and instead enter Week 18 eliminated from playoff consideration, but head coach Mike Macdonald had one of the best seasons by any first-year head coach and has plenty of positives to take away from this year. Seattle’s defense rounded into form in a key four-game winning streak just after the midseason mark, and both quarterback Geno Smith and wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba could rank in the top five league-wide in yardage at their respective positions. Seattle’s standard should be the postseason and a prospective 10-win finish without the playoffs would sting, but of any team in this article, the Seahawks had the most impressive 2024 campaign.

2024 in a Nutshell: Vikings 27, Seahawks 24. Five of the Seahawks’ seven losses came against teams that have already clinched playoff spots, and their late-season defeat to the Vikings dealt a major blow to their playoff hopes. Smith’s touchdown to AJ Barner with 4:21 remaining gave the Seahawks a four-point lead, only for Seattle’s defense to allow the go-ahead score 30 seconds later.

Arizona Cardinals (7-9, third in NFC West)

Grade: C-. Arizona flirted with the NFC West lead, and the Cardinals no longer look like the rebuilding team they were in head coach Jonathan Gannon’s first year. But losing five of six matchups down the stretch with a real chance of the postseason is far from ideal, with three divisional losses in that six-game sequence. Quarterback Kyler Murray posted magnificent performances early in the season to energize Arizona’s offense, but he threw five touchdowns and eight interceptions in that decisive stretch and couldn’t lead the Cardinals past a non-contender in Carolina with their season on the line. Not a disastrous year given the Cardinals’ modest expectations, but a missed opportunity in the prime of Murray’s career.

2024 in a Nutshell: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 18 (12/8/24). One of the divisional losses that doomed Arizona’s shot at the NFC West crown, this one included a pair of Kyler Murray interceptions in the first quarter and a staggering 409 yards from scrimmage from the Seattle offense. The Cardinals did not score in their final three drives.

San Francisco 49ers (6-10, fourth in NFC West)

Grade: D-. I did not cherish watching my 2024 pick to win the Super Bowl go down in flames, but then again, it could be worse — I did not draft any Niners players in fantasy football. Reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey rushed just 50 times across four games, while wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk played in seven games and backup running back Jordan Mason ended up on injured reserve with an ankle injury. San Francisco lost some close games early in the season but still had plenty of opportunity to make up ground in the NFC West at the midway point. That resurgence never arrived. In their last seven games, the 49ers have won a single game — a 38-13 rout of Chicago, a disaster in its own right. San Francisco underperformed expectations as significantly as any NFC team, but the nightmarish 2024 finish shouldn’t drastically affect their 2025 outlook.

2024 in a Nutshell: Cardinals 24, 49ers 23 (10/6/24). San Francisco could finish the season with five divisional losses, and this one to Arizona was tough for the 49ers to digest. San Francisco led 23-10 at halftime, then did not score a single point for the rest of the game as Arizona charged back for a one-point victory. The 49ers’ second-half drives: interception, turnover on downs, fumble, interception.