Welcome to the Riker Report, where I open up my game day files each week and share a quick-hitter observation or development from each of the eight NFL divisions. Divisional battles in Baltimore and Landover, Maryland brought clarity to the playoff picture this weekend, headlined by masterful performances by award hopefuls in Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels. These are the storylines with short- and long-term impact from Week 16.
AFC East: Patriots surrender early 14-0 lead in lopsided loss to division winner Buffalo
Growth itself is a measure of success for the 2024 New England Patriots — both head coach Jerod Mayo and quarterback Drake Maye are in their first years in the NFL at their respective positions. That inexperience, along with the lackluster state of New England’s roster in the post-Belichick/Brady years, has contributed to the Patriots’ 3-11 start to the season and early playoff elimination.
Yet 16 minutes into their road matchup with one of the NFL’s best teams, the Buffalo Bills, the Patriots held a commanding 14-0 lead on their hosts. Maye came out firing and New England’s defense demonstrated the tenacity of a team that was in the thick of the playoff race. But the Patriots couldn’t hold off the Bills or avoid mistakes, and Maye’s offense didn’t score again until the final minute of regulation in a 24-21 loss. New England also gave the ball over three times to Buffalo’s single turnover, one of which culminated in the Bills’ fumble recovery for a score. Holding Buffalo without a 30-yard receiver is admirable, and Maye’s 261-yard outing had its impressive moments. But such an uneven effort should fall short of New England’s standard, even in a clear rebuilding season.
NFC East: Jayden Daniels directs Commanders’ second-half rally to secure playoff spot
With one quarter left in the Commanders’ final matchup of the regular season against the Philadelphia Eagles, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels faced an unenviable challenge: a two-possession deficit against a favored divisional opponent on a 10-game winning streak. Daniels didn’t flinch. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner and No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft led the Commanders to three touchdowns in their final four offensive drives against one of the league’s best defenses statistically for a last-second 36-33 win. In doing so, Daniels ensured that the Commanders will return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and eliminated two teams with much loftier preseason expectations, the Cowboys and 49ers.
In a performance that was emblematic of his Rookie of the Year-worthy campaign, Daniels flummoxed Philadelphia with his powerful right arm, quick feet and strong football IQ. On Washington’s first touchdown drive of the sequence, Daniels converted a fourth-and-11 opportunity with a gutsy scramble up the middle for a 12-yard gain and finished the drive with a four-yard toss to Olamide Zaccheus. Another Daniels-Zaccheus connection, this one for 49 yards, gave Washington a 28-27 lead, but the Eagles answered back with consecutive field goal drives. That set the stage for the best moment of Daniels’ stellar season: a nine-play, 57 yard drive in which Daniels completed all four of his passes, ran twice and found Jamison Crowder for the winning score with six seconds remaining in regulation. Daniels finished the afternoon with five passing touchdowns, a pristine 95.7 ESPN QBR, 81 rushing yards and one monumental victory.
AFC North: Takeaways make the difference in Baltimore’s 34-17 home win against Pittsburgh
Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh could not have scripted a more confidence-boosting win than the Ravens’ 34-17 takedown of the AFC North leaders, the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Ravens’ embattled defense made the plays of the game in Ar’Darius Washington’s forced fumble of Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson and cornerback Marlon Humphrey’s game-defining pick-six. Quarterback Lamar Jackson (three passing touchdowns) and running back Derrick Henry (162 rushing yards) dominated the highly-touted Steelers’ defense, and kicker Justin Tucker knocked through a 51-yard field goal in a perfect kicking performance. Baltimore’s excellent play in all three phases added up to a 17-point win, a rarity in an AFC North rivalry that almost always comes down to the final possession. In the scope of the playoff picture, the Ravens clinched a postseason spot with the victory and closed the gap between themselves and the Steelers for the AFC North crown. Baltimore still has a lot to prove in the chase for the Lombardi Trophy, but Saturday afternoon’s three-phase clinic was one sweet victory.
NFC North: Packers shut out injury-bitten Saints on Monday Night Football to seal playoff spot
Green Bay is well overshadowed by Detroit’s dominant season, and the rival Vikings have emerged as the league’s biggest surprise and a legitimate threat for the NFC North title, all without its expected QB1. But the Packers are right where they did their damage last year — a clinched Wild Card spot. And with a potent rushing attack to complement young quarterback Jordan Love, the Packers are capable of exceeding last year’s playoff performance, which included an emphatic upset of the Dallas Cowboys and a near-win over the eventual NFC champion 49ers.
In a chilly rout in Lambeau Field, the Packers put it all together and never let the inferior team reach the scoreboard. Green Bay doubled the Saints’ yardage total in a 34-0 rout and forced a pair of turnovers, while the offense ran up the score early with three touchdowns on the Packers’ first three drives. Beating up on bad teams can be enough to punch a playoff berth, but Green Bay’s resume also includes a prime-time win against Seattle, close wins over playoff-worthy teams in Houston and the Rams and revenge against San Francisco for last year’s game. The Packers quietly rank fourth in the NFL in total yardage on offense and rank in the top 10 defensively in points allowed and yardage allowed. They won’t be pushovers in January.
AFC South: Houston can’t steal a road win against AFC-leading Chiefs
The Texans have secured the AFC South crown, but after achieving that feat and winning a Wild Card round game in 2023, Houston has its sights set higher with the playoffs approaching. While not essential to their playoff odds, Houston’s trip to Kansas City on Saturday gave the young squad an opportunity to prove the Texans can hold their own with the conference’s true contenders.
Instead, the Texans let the opportunity to prove themselves against top competition and an adverse atmosphere pass them by. The Chiefs converted Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud’s first-half interceptions into 10 points, but the Texans still had chances late to pull even with Kansas City. Houston’s final three possessions: three-and-out, a field goal on a botched red-zone trip and a three-and-out for negative yardage. The Chiefs received Houston’s punt with just under four minutes in regulation and never gave possession back. The Texans will have one more chance for a statement win on Christmas with a home game against the punishing Baltimore Ravens.
NFC South: Michael Penix Jr. passes first test in debut as Falcons’ QB1
Michael Penix Jr. wasn’t the reason Atlanta rolled past the New York Giants in a 34-7 romp on Sunday. Atlanta’s defense returned two Drew Lock passes for touchdowns, while running back Bijan Robinson put the game away with two rushing touchdowns. But Penix should be the Falcons’ fanbase’s biggest reason for optimism in the regular season’s final weeks. Despite the modest statline (202 passing yards, zero touchdowns, one interception), Penix did not commit any unforced errors and showed impressive poise in replacing starter Kirk Cousins on short notice. Penix looked sharp with 18 completions on 27 attempts against the NFL’s worst team and gave the Falcons’ regressing offense a spark it hasn’t shown in months. The rookie passer will look to build on his debut performance in critical contests against Washington and Carolina that will determine Atlanta’s playoff fate.
AFC West: Chargers stake claim as AFC West’s No. 2 team in sweeping Denver
Thursday Night Football benefited from a terrific matchup in Week 16: a divisional battle between two likely playoff entrants and playmakers on both sides of the ball. Despite the Broncos’ and Chargers’ stingy defenses, offense (and special teams, for a play) took center stage in a 34-27 Los Angeles win with massive playoff implications.
Though Denver stretched a third-quarter lead out to 24-13 with a trio of early touchdowns, the Chargers proved to be the superior team in a lopsided second-half performance. Quarterback Justin Herbert commandeered 70-, 78- and 90-yard touchdown drives to give Los Angeles a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. Both teams boast 9-6 records and are well-positioned to earn AFC wild card spots, but the Chargers’ offense has elevated its play in both of its wins against Denver this season. Los Angeles also had the coolest play of the game: a rare 57-yard “free kick” field goal by kicker Cameron Dicker after a fair catch and Denver penalty that allowed Dicker to attempt the long field goal without any defensive pressure.
NFC West: Cardinals’ overtime loss to Carolina extinguishes remote playoff chances
With their fourth loss in their past five games, the Cardinals and quarterback Kyler Murray are officially eliminated from playoff contention. Coming up short in the competitive NFC is no slight in itself, but the Cardinals’ loss Sunday should sting for a while. Arizona needed a win against an already-eliminated Carolina team to stay afloat in the NFC West picture and instead suffered a 36-30 overtime loss to the Panthers. The Cardinals couldn’t execute when it mattered most, from two turnovers by Murray to a 14-yard loss on an overtime sack that foiled Arizona’s would-be game winning drive.
The Cardinals are one of the league’s most confusing teams based on their timeline and uneven play. Though head coach Jonathan Gannon is in his second year, Murray is 27 years old and far removed from his rookie contract. This Arizona roster should be one in the middle of its years of contention, not one eliminated from playoff contention with two weeks to go. The Cardinals don’t seem like a team on the rise like Washington or Denver, but rather one that could be nearing their peak as a middling wild card contender. Consistency would go a long way in establishing the Cardinals in the playoff mix next season and was a major issue once again in a crushing loss in Carolina.
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