Welcome to the Riker Report, where I open up my game day files each week and share a quick-hitter observation or development from each of the eight NFL divisions. Quarterback benchings have transformed both playoff contenders and afterthoughts alike, while a couple of divisional battles have shaped playoff races. These are the developments you need to know from Week 15.
AFC East: Dolphins’ remote playoff chances take hit in loss to Houston
The AFC playoff field is nearing finalization, and Indianapolis, Miami and Cincinnati may have run out of time to punch their tickets to the playoffs. Each team sits at six wins, and while the Bengals and Dolphins have not been mathematically eliminated, the scenarios for their playoff dreams to be realized are becoming increasingly convoluted. Of course, losing does not help matters, and the Dolphins have only themselves to blame after a 20-12 loss to an actual playoff entrant, the Houston Texans. Tua Tagovailoa’s three interceptions in the road defeat proved costly, and a 52-yard effort in the ground game failed to provide the Fins with a spark.
In a longer-term scope, are the Dolphins headed in the right direction? I’m not so sure. Miami lost six games in a seven-game stretch (largely with Tagovailoa out) that cratered its playoff chances, but the Dolphins have not shown an ability to compete with playoff-worthy teams or perform at their best in the clutch. Last season’s slide to squander the AFC East crown and the ensuing playoff loss provided red flags, but the Dolphins’ losses to the Packers, Texans, Bills and Cardinals — all of which came with a healthy Tagovailoa — paint the picture of a team that hasn’t proven it can knock off quality squads. A strong end to 2024 would provide some optimism, but the Dolphins may need another big swing this offseason to return to contention.
NFC East: Jalen Hurts shines in Eagles’ convincing win over in-state rival Steelers
The NFC has an undeniable void when it comes to top-tier quarterbacks. While All-Pro types like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen duke it out week after week in the AFC, finding a guy who can match up on the NFC side is a difficult task. Factoring out the injured QBs (Dak Prescott) and benched QBs (Kirk Cousins) removes some usual suspects, and the NFC’s best probably is an uninspiring mix of Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield, Detroit’s Jared Goff, Arizona’s Kyler Murray, Green Bay’s Jordan Love and Washington’s rookie sensation, Jayden Daniels. And one other big name who, unlike all but one of those aforementioned NFC passers, has actually played in the Super Bowl before. That’s Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, who has taken a backseat to running back Saquon Barkley for most of the season but rose to the challenge in taking on the NFL’s best defense in Pittsburgh on a national stage.
Across the scope of the season, Hurts has not separated himself with his passing ability, despite having top options in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith at his disposal. Hurts ranks 19th in passing yardage, 12th in passing touchdowns and ninth in ESPN’s QBR metric. Against Pittsburgh’s vaunted unit in a crucial game for playoff seeding, Hurts looked like one of the league’s best in a 27-13 win. Hurts posted his second-highest passing yardage total of the season and accounted for three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) while steering clear of interceptions. Pair a healthy, dynamic Hurts with Saquon Barkley’s rushing prowess and the NFC’s most improved defense, and the Eagles look ready to compete with anyone come playoff time.
AFC North: Making the Lamar Jackson MVP case
The NFL rarely has repeat MVP award winners, a tendency that can be attributed to an array of worthy candidates year after year and voting that can lean toward narratives over performance. The fact that Lamar Jackson has won two MVP awards in his young career is a testament to his ability to wow the league and trick defenses in a multitude of ways.
What’s stopping him from earning the award in back-to-back seasons? A five-touchdown performance against the downtrodden Giants boosted Jackson to within two scores of the NFL’s leading mark, while he leads all quarterbacks yet again with 743 rushing yards. While running back Derrick Henry has infused another big-play element into Baltimore’s offense, Jackson has been instrumental in mounting late-game heroics and compensating for the defense’s regression. Buffalo’s Josh Allen will be the favorite to win MVP for the first time in his career and Joe Burrow, Jared Goff and Saquon Barkley will be worthy candidates, but don’t discount Jackson from making magic happen down the stretch. Of course, the two-time MVP will have much bigger goals this winter than returning to the NFL awards stage in February.
NFC North: Lions take a step back in shootout loss to the Buffalo Bills
Losing to MVP favorite Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills hardly qualifies as a terrible result, but the Lions endured one of the roughest weeks of any playoff contender. Detroit ceded valuable ground in the race for the NFC’s top seed to the Eagles and the Vikings (and in the NFC North race to the Vikings, as well). Allen and the Bills scorched the Lions for a season-high 48 points on Detroit’s home turf and averaged more than eight yards per play from scrimmage. Worse yet, running back David Montgomery may have played his last down for the Lions this season after suffering an MCL injury.
A lot has to break right for an NFL team to start a season 12-2, and no season with at least 12 wins is a lost cause. But suddenly, the Lions are looking vulnerable and the sharks of the NFC are circling around the coveted first-round bye and home-field advantage. A regular-season loss can be a silver lining in allowing a team to reset and take the pressure off a win streak, but the Lions’ defeat comes with plenty of question marks, too.
AFC South: Titans’ revolving door at quarterback continues with benching of Will Levis
With relatively new faces at head coach (Brian Callahan) and general manager (Ran Carthon), the higher-ups in the Titans’ organization aren’t going anywhere after the season, even with Tennessee’s dismal 3-11 record and early playoff elimination. But as much as any team in the NFL, the Titans are in dire need of a quarterback room reset. Quarterback Will Levis was relegated to the bench in Tennessee’s 37-27 loss to Cincinnati (after three interceptions on 12 pass attempts, for an incredible 1.1 ESPN QBR), and he won’t return to the starting lineup in Week 16. The Titans’ Levis experiment had its moments and its memes, but Tennessee needs to invest in a quarterback rather than opting for mid-round picks and bargain-bin free agents. Since drafting Marcus Mariota in the 2015 NFL Draft, the Titans have started Levis (second round), current starter Mason Rudolph (free agent), Ryan Tannehill (free agent), Malik Willis (third round), Josh Dobbs (free agent), Blaine Gabbert (free agent) and Matt Cassel (free agent). To be fair, Tennessee’s roster isn’t exactly built for contention and the AFC is top heavy, but the defense leads the conference in yardage allowed and the AFC South is one of the weaker divisions in football. As teams like the Texans and Broncos have seen recently, a young passer can be just the spark a team needs to get out of a rut and into the playoffs quickly. Tennessee, it’s your turn to make a move.
NFC South: Despite MNF win, Falcons opt to bench Kirk Cousins for Michael Penix Jr.
The most shocking and important development of Week 15 came a day after the week’s slate of games actually ended: Atlanta’s benching of quarterback Kirk Cousins for rookie Michael Penix Jr. The Falcons are making the move coming off a 15-9 road win over the Las Vegas Raiders to snap a four-game skid, but the offensive performance wasn’t the reason for the victorious result. And Cousins didn’t help his case to keep Atlanta’s starting spot, completing just 11 passes and tossing an interception for the fifth consecutive contest.
The Falcons made the decision because their season hangs in the balance, and they just can’t keep counting on Cousins to regain his Pro Bowl form with the NFC South title hanging in the balance. Atlanta is one game back of Tampa Bay for the division lead and won both of the teams’ matchups, but the offense that generated so much hype in the offseason needed a jumpstart. Enter Penix, who took over college football last season and parlayed his success into a top-10 draft selection. Relative to his NFL draft mates, Penix has had plenty of time to learn the Falcons’ system, and contests against the Giants and Panthers are winnable. But any excitement around the rookie’s arrival to the starting lineup is offset by the shock of the top free-agent signing of the offseason getting benched, and head coach Raheem Morris will have a tough task in keeping his team poised in the home stretch.
AFC West: Denver all but locks up wild card spot with dominant defensive showing
In a clash between horse franchises vying for wild card positioning, the Broncos shellacked the Colts with a 24-0 showing in the second half in front of their home fans. Though the late afternoon matchup was close for much of the first half, the final result felt convincing and indicative: the Broncos are a good, playoff-worthy team, while the Colts proved to be a playoff pretender that couldn’t get out of their own way. Indianapolis’ most baffling miscue was running back Jonathan Taylor’s inexcusable fumble at the end of a would-be touchdown run that took a 20-7 Indy lead off the board and gave the Broncos possession, but a Nik Bonitto pick-six off a pass a wide receiver threw in Anthony Richardson’s direction provided the exclamation point. In securing a 31-13 victory to boost their record to 9-5 and strengthen their grip on the playoffs, the Broncos lived up to the moment and proved that they could handle business even when the offense had an off day (rookie Bo Nix recorded a career-high three interceptions). If Denver can avenge its earlier loss to the Chargers in an upcoming Thursday Night Football contest, the Broncos’ resume will be difficult to ignore come playoff time.
NFC West: Rams make NFC West a two-team race with unsightly win over Niners
Thursday Night Football is not associated with marquee, aesthetically pleasing games, and not even a promising divisional matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers could rescue viewers from another midweek mess.
That doesn’t matter to the Rams, who improved to 8-6 with a 12-6 victory over the reigning NFC champions. Rams running back Kyren Williams led the way with 108 yards on 29 carries and wide receiver Puka Nacua had one of his flashiest performances, but the Rams’ defense carried Los Angeles just days after surrendering 42 points to Buffalo. The host 49ers managed just 63 rushing yards and never reached the Rams’ red zone in one of their worst showings of the season. Los Angeles now holds a 61 percent chance to win the NFC West, while the Seahawks fell to 29 percent, according to The Athletic’s playoff projections model. All eyes will be on the two teams’ Week 18 matchup, which could determine which team walks away with the league’s most unpredictable division.
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