We’ve reached the stretch run of the NFL regular season. Though four playoff tickets have been punched already and seven teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, intrigue is building for what promises to be a fascinating finish to the regular season. What should you be paying attention to, aside from your fantasy football team’s performance in playoff matchups? These are the storylines to watch in the final four weeks.
Four Playoff Positioning Battles to Watch
- AFC North winner — HBO made the right choice in picking the AFC North for its in-season Hard Knocks treatment, though its production team could hardly have scripted a more shocking turn of events in the NFL’s grittiest division. From the Bengals’ defensive lapses to Browns’ backup quarterback Jameis Winston’s infusion of charisma, even the sub-.500 teams have been interesting. But it’s the top of the division where two championship contenders will face off in the final weeks, including a Week 16 matchup (more on that later). The Steelers won their first matchup against the Ravens in a nail-biter, hold a two-game lead and boast a 74 percent chance to win their division, according to The Athletic’s playoff projections model. But the Ravens could make up ground with a win on their home turf and appear to be the more dangerous (though inconsistent) playoff team. Though this two-horse race isn’t the closest divisional battle, it’s the most captivating and deserving of HBO treatment.
- NFC South winner — On the other side of the spectrum, a division between two middle-of-the-pack teams that have been playing hot potato with first place. Tampa Bay holds a one-game lead and all the momentum, while Atlanta has been tumbling down the standings and has regressed on offense. Still, the Falcons swept the teams’ season series and have a 37 percent chance to take the division. A wild-card berth is a possibility for both teams, as well. A long playoff run would be a surprise for either team, but an NFC South crown would be a sizable accomplishment for either franchise.
- NFC West winner — Seattle is in the driver’s seat of this division, which even the most optimistic of Seahawks fans would have found unfathomable at the start of the season. After all, the NFC West hosts the defending NFC champions, the 49ers, and a trendy playoff pick in the Los Angeles Rams. The Hawks aren’t in the clear yet and they should be wary of their talented but injury-depleted division rivals — Seattle only has a 55 percent chance of winning their division despite its recent surge and lead in the standings. Technically, all four teams are in the hunt for the top spot in the NFC West, which should give each divisional matchup a playoff feel.
- Top AFC Seed — Given the Broncos take care of business and effectively eliminate the Colts from playoff contention on Sunday, the AFC field will be pretty set in terms of the seven teams that make the cut. The bigger question will be which contender will finish as the conference’s top team, a discussion that includes Kansas City, Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Kansas City has a two-game lead with two games to go, but they have looked vulnerable in recent weeks and lost to Buffalo earlier in the season. The Bills are coming off a shootout loss to the Rams, while Pittsburgh faces the toughest schedule of the three. Home-field advantage and a first-round bye will mean a great deal in a playoff field with contenders even beyond the divisional winners, and a late run by Buffalo and Pittsburgh would go a long way in unseating the Chiefs from representing the AFC in the Super Bowl for a third-consecutive time.
Four Games to Watch
- Week 15: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3, 1st in AFC North) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-2, 1st in NFC East)
The battle of Pennsylvania only comes around every couple years, but it’s hard to imagine an in-state matchup with more excitement or talent on either sideline. Both the Steelers and Eagles have eclipsed 10 wins and established themselves as Super Bowl contenders, while each team’s premier offensive addition (Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson, Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley) has posted a revelatory 2024 season.
- Week 16: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3, 1st in AFC North) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5, 2nd in AFC North)
The NFL’s best rivalry came down to the wire in an 18-16 Pittsburgh win in November, and the teams’ second matchup could very well decide the fate of the AFC North. The Steelers’ defense held Ravens running back Derrick Henry to 65 yards and limited Baltimore to its lowest point total this season. Can they do it again, this time in Charm City?
- Week 17: Green Bay Packers (9-4, 3rd in NFC North) at Minnesota Vikings (11-2, 2nd in NFC North)
The Packers-Vikings rivalry isn’t at the heights of the Brett Favre vs. Aaron Rodgers battles from well over a decade ago. Still, this game is a must-watch, and one with plenty of playoff implications. A Minnesota win could keep the Vikings’ hopes at the NFC’s top seed alive, while a Green Bay victory would entrench the young Packers in the Super Bowl conversation. The teams’ last matchup was a 31-29 Vikings victory, and this one could go either way.
- Week 18: Seattle Seahawks (8-5, 1st in NFC West) at Los Angeles Rams (8-6, 2nd in NFC West)
If the Seahawks fall back to earth a bit, the final week of the regular season might be the game that is necessary to secure the league’s most contested division. Depending on the next couple weeks, the high-powered Rams could emerge as the Seahawks’ biggest challenger, too. Seattle’s defense should be considered the NFC West’s best defensive unit, and shutting down Matthew Stafford and Co. would put an exclamation point on an impressive regular season.
Four Storylines for Non-Playoff Teams
- Race for the No. 1 Pick
If the performances of the early picks of the 2024 NFL Draft have demonstrated one thing, it’s that even consensus No. 1 overall picks can fall behind their peers. Bears quarterback Caleb Willams was the most hyped prospect in years and has no shortage of receiving weapons in Chicago, but he’s fallen far behind Washington’s Jayden Daniels and Denver’s Bo Nix in the rookie standings. Looking ahead, there’s no clear-cut choice like Williams to make obtaining the top pick in the draft a triumphant accomplishment. But it’s always an unexpected joy to watch the fanbases of the league’s worst teams agonize over whether their teams are doing a good enough job of losing, and seven teams have a real shot at stinking it up so much that they earn the top pick. The Giants and Raiders lead the NFL with 11 losses, with the Jaguars, Titans, Patriots, Browns and Jets right behind them (or in front of them, depending on your perspective). Even more fun, some of these teams have pulled off massive upsets this season, and they’re not waving the white flag with their on-field product.
- Joe Burrow’s MVP Campaign
Can a player who misses the playoffs and finishes with a losing record win the league’s most prestigious award? Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is compiling a great case for the award, one that rivals Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, even with his team out of the playoff picture with its defensive regression. Burrow leads the NFL in passing yardage and passing touchdowns and ranks second in ESPN’s QBR metric — and those haven’t been empty stats, either. While not translating to wins, Burrow’s efforts should factor into the MVP conversation.
- Mike McCarthy’s Coaching Future
If Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy’s 2024 season is considered make-or-break, the decision is out: it’s a break. I’ll say this: McCarthy did not control the Cowboys’ unimpressive offseason performance in free agency and he did not incur the injury bug that has plagued nearly every unit in Dallas and knocked out Dak Prescott. But even at full strength, the Cowboys looked nothing like the 12-win teams of past seasons and were routinely routed on their home turf. The Cowboys’ head coaching position doesn’t come available often due to Jerry Jones’ patience and Dallas’ relative regular season success in past decades, but the Cowboys’ season can’t be considered a success by any measure.
- Interim Coaches Try to Prove Their Merit
Three teams made the unconventional decision to fire their head coaches midseason, but any sort of interim coach bump hasn’t materialized so far. The 3-10 New York Jets have crashed spectacularly and jettisoned Robert Saleh, but it’s only gotten worse since. New Orleans has shown some signs of life in moving on from Dennis Allen and inserting Darren Rizzi at the helm, but the Saints are too far out of the NFC South lead to contend in the last month of the season. The Chicago Bears moved on from Matt Eberflus one day after Thanksgiving and responded with their worst effort of the season in a lopsided loss to the 49ers — their seventh defeat in a row. The recent track record of interim coaches such as Las Vegas coach Antonio Pierce finding a spark and turning it into a full-time role is promising, but this year’s interim group have a lot of collective mess on their hands.
Four Best Teams
- Buffalo Bills
It’s no surprise to see these teams here — they’re the four teams with playoff spots clinched, after all. But let’s start with the Bills, who are using the best season of quarterback Josh Allen’s career to catapult themselves into the Super Bowl conversation. Buffalo has proven to be a worthy rival to the defending back-to-back champion Chiefs, though recent games have cast doubts on their rushing attack and defense. If the Bills can capture the top seed and make Patrick Mahomes’ path run through Buffalo, Bills Mafia will be closer to that elusive Super Bowl appearance that they have coveted.
- Kansas City Chiefs
With only one loss this season and victories in the two most recent Super Bowls, the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL until further notice. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not put up MVP numbers but has stabilized his play in the second half of the season, while the squad as a whole keeps finding ways to win. The Chiefs’ poise in the clutch is one of their best attributes, even if recent conclusions to games have been a bit close for comfort (three close wins over each of their AFC West rivals, each by a two-point margin). The top seed in the AFC is theirs for the taking.
- Detroit Lions
The Lions have reigned atop the NFC for most of this season, but the upcoming stretch could challenge their grasp on a first-round bye. Detroit plays the high-powered Buffalo Bills at home on Sunday and wraps up its season with a potential NFC North-deciding matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. Still, the Lions sure look ready to build on last season’s deep playoff run. It’s difficult to nail down Detroit’s biggest strength because the team has so many across both sides of the ball, and that’s a terrific problem to have come playoff time.
- Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia has introduced itself to the race for the NFC’s top seed, separating itself from its division and positioning itself on the heels of Detroit. Running back Saquon Barkley has been the most exciting story out of Philadelphia, but the Eagles’ defense, which has allowed the fewest yards per game of any team in the NFL, deserves more attention. With plenty of players still around with big game experience and one of the NFL’s most talented rosters, the Eagles sure look like the real deal and match up well with the Lions.
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