Welcome to the Riker Report, where I open up my game day files each week and share a quick-hitter observation or development from each of the eight NFL divisions. A third NFL head coach has been fired, while the league’s first playoff bids have been clinched. Here’s a closer look at eight meaningful storylines from Week 13.
AFC East: Bills’ season reaches a new high in snowy rout of the 49ers
Over the course of one Sunday Night Football matchup, half of my preseason Super Bowl prediction made me look like a genius, while the other half made me look quite foolish. Spoiler alert: the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers will not meet in the Super Bowl this year, as I predicted. San Francisco is an extreme longshot to defend its NFC crown after its lackluster 5-7 start and fourth-place standing in the NFC West, but the Bills, the risker pick back when I made my postseason projections, look every bit the real deal.
In selecting the Bills to reach New Orleans for their first Super Bowl in decades, I cited a couple of factors: the dominance of quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo’s ability to challenge the Chiefs and the franchise’s staying power in the tumultuous AFC. All three have been on display this season. Allen has been one of the league’s best quarterbacks, while the Bills handed the Chiefs their first regular-season loss this season and entrenched themselves on the Super Bowl radar. On Sunday night, the Bills played a much less loaded opponent — San Francisco’s season has been defined by injury and one-possession losses — and had their way with the Niners on a prime-time stage. Allen recorded a couple of touchdowns and reached the end zone himself on an inventive hook-and-ladder play, while Buffalo’s defense shut down 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy to the tune of 94 passing yards. The Bills also won the turnover margin +3 and sealed the AFC East division title. Buffalo is a real contender to steal the AFC’s top seed, and the Bills’ upcoming contest against Detroit could be an actual Super Bowl preview.
NFC East: Eagles stake claim to NFC’s top spot in win against Baltimore
Philadelphia entered the 2024 season as one of the more volatile contenders, but their season has been more “boom” than “bust.” Running back Saquon Barkley has provided a great deal of that “boom” and could make a serious bid for the single-season rushing record, and Philadelphia as a whole has taken control of the NFC East. While expected contenders like San Francisco and Dallas have tumbled out of the playoff picture, Philadelphia looks as strong as ever, just a couple years removed from a Super Bowl appearance.
The Eagles’ win against Baltimore is the most impressive entry yet to their 2024 resume. Barkley shined with 107 yards and a touchdown against the league’s best rushing defense, and Philadelphia simply out-executed the Ravens when it counted in a major road victory. Obviously, Ravens kicker Justin Tucker’s three missed field goals impacted the 24-19 final score, but Philadelphia earned the win with seven- and 11-play scoring drives in the fourth quarter. While Detroit is getting all the love this season, the Eagles have just as much offensive firepower — if not more — and an advantage in big-game experience. Ensuring home field and requiring the NFC to run through Lincoln Financial Field would be a boon to Philly’s Super Bowl path.
AFC North: Russell Wilson outduels Joe Burrow in Pittsburgh’s 44-point showing
Week 13 was a terrific one for former members of the 2023 Denver Broncos’ offense that now play in the AFC North (wow, that was specific). Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy set a new record for most receiving yards against a previous employer by torching Denver for 235 yards and a touchdown, but it’s his former quarterback that accomplished both a career day and a win.
Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson has had quite a turnaround from 2023 to 2024. After opening the season as the obvious starter and getting benched in the season’s final weeks with the Broncos in 2023, Wilson earned the Steelers’ trust to such a degree that head coach Mike Tomlin switched out Justin Fields for Wilson early in the season, despite Pittsburgh’s 4-2 record over that span. Wilson has thrived in his first season in the Steel City and has rewarded Tomlin’s belief — no time more so than in the Steelers’ 44-38 battle against the Bengals. Wilson surpassed 300 passing yards for the first time this season by throwing for 414 yards and matched his season-high with three touchdown passes. Selecting Wilson’s best throw from the afternoon is nearly impossible, and it’s clear that Pittsburgh is bringing out Wilson’s best in this late stage of his career.
One point that is on my mind: is this Wilson’s most dangerous team in a decade? The 9-3 Steelers have Wilson’s best defense since the Legion of Boom days, and his supporting cast and coaching staff rank up there with the squads from the later seasons of his Seattle tenure. With wins against Atlanta, the Chargers, Baltimore and Washington, the Steelers sure look legit and will be a daunting task for any AFC playoff opponent.
NFC North: Bears head coach Matt Eberflus fired on Black Friday after close loss to Detroit
My favorite Matt Eberflus moment came during Northwestern football’s 2023 Pro Day, when Eberflus and a squad of Bears personnel descended upon Evanston to scout left tackle Peter Skoronski, a prospective top-10 pick, and the Wildcats’ other NFL-caliber talents. I have a picture of Eberflus chatting with then-Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald, while I lurk in the background, deep in thought and very observant. Eberflus ended up selecting an offensive tackle with his top-10 draft pick but (ironically given the Bears’ Pro Day presence) opted against picking the hometown product. That’s my favorite Matt Eberflus memory, and I can’t think of another one that contends.
Tried-and-true Bears fans probably can not, either. Eberflus’ time in Chicago will be defined by his inability to mold Justin Fields into a franchise quarterback, then a midseason collapse in 2024 characterized by bewildering late-game management and the seeming regression of No. 1 pick Caleb Williams. Fittingly, Eberflus’ last on-field moment came in the Bears’ furious Thanksgiving Day rally, which did not prove furious enough on the final play — a potential 99-yard touchdown drive was foiled when the Bears ran just one play in the final half-minute of regulation, despite owning a timeout. The loss dealt Chicago its sixth-straight defeat and spelled the end of Eberflus’ 46-game run with the Bears.
AFC South: Anthony Richardson leads Colts on game-winning drive to keep Indy’s playoff hopes alive
Indianapolis is still alive. The Colts could not have imagined a more turbulent 2024 season, but a pair of one-point victories over the past three games have kept them on the precipice of the AFC playoff picture (The Athletic’s model estimates the Colts’ chances of a playoff spot at 25 percent).
That bubble very nearly burst in a gritty road matchup against the New England Patriots. The hosts recorded almost 200 more yards from scrimmage than the Colts and held a 24-17 lead with just over five minutes to go in regulation, but quarterback Anthony Richardson put on his hero cape to rescue the Colts’ playoff hopes. The sophomore led Indianapolis in a 19-play, 80-yard drive that featured three fourth-down conversions and culminated in a 3-yard, fourth-down touchdown toss to wide receiver Alec Pierce. The only reason the drive didn’t tie the game was the Colts’ decision to go for the win with a two-point conversion, and Richardson again delivered with a successful rush up the middle. Next up in the Colts’ march toward the playoffs: the ascendant Broncos and one of the best defenses in football.
NFC South: Buccaneers and Panthers combine for one of Week 13’s most entertaining matchups
Who expected a game between the Buccaneers’ injury-ravaged offense and Carolina’s deficient offense to be so exciting? I’m just grateful that it was such a thrilling shootout. On one side, Carolina quarterback Bryce Young had the best game of his career — 298 passing yards and a touchdown, with no turnovers — and still came up short against a Tampa Bay offense led by Bucky Irving’s 152 rushing yards. Tampa Bay needed this divisional win to catch up to the Atlanta Falcons in the race for the NFC South title, but Carolina looked like a team that was in the race, too, with the intensity they brought to the field. Young spearheaded a nine-play, 60-yard touchdown drive to give the Panthers a 23-20 lead with 30 seconds remaining, capped off by a stellar throw to Adam Thielen for a 25-yard score. Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield responded with a quick six-play drive to set up Chase McLaughlin’s game-tying score and send the game into overtime. The craziness continued into the final period: a missed field goal by McLaughlin, Thielen’s one-handed, 16-yard catch to move Carolina into position for a game-winning field goal, Tampa Bay linebacker Anthony Nelson’s inspired forced fumble. Tampa Bay avoided a tie and captured a road victory with McLaughlin’s 30-yard walk-off field goal, but the Buccaneers, Panthers and us viewers had plenty to enjoy from Sunday afternoon’s NFC South matchup.
AFC West: Raiders bungle opportunity to knock off Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium
Are the Chiefs the luckiest team in the NFL? I’m of the belief that fortunate bounces factor in, but the great teams appear lucky because they handle their business when it matters most. The bad teams don’t. One way to look at the Las Vegas Raiders’ near-upset of the Chiefs on Black Friday was to point to the Raiders’ missed field goal and the Chiefs’ second-half struggles as reasons why the final result was an undeserved “bail out,” but give the victors some spoils.
Las Vegas battled back from a 16-3 deficit late in the third quarter to take the lead thanks to two touchdown drives, but kicker Daniel Carlson was unable to answer the Chiefs’ fourth-quarter, go-ahead field goal in a 58-yard miss. Still, the Raiders’ offense didn’t give up, and five consecutive completions inside of the two-minute warning positioned Carlson for a redemption kick. All the Raiders needed to do was position the football where Carlson wanted it for what would have been around a 49-yard field-goal attempt. Instead, the Raiders showed why they are 2-10 by losing an unforced fumbled snap with 15 seconds. The mistake gave the Chiefs possession for good and a razor-thin 19-17 win. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes did not put up sterling numbers and the accuracy of the late-game officiating is a valid question, but great teams don’t put themselves in position to lose on an unforced error, as the Raiders did. It’s not an error the back-to-back Super Bowl champions on the other side of the matchup would have committed.
NFC West: Is the NFC West a battle of the birds?
The NFC West has been the league’s most equitable division, and the only definitive takeaway we’ve had from the first 13 weeks is that San Francisco, the prohibitive favorite to win the division in the preseason, is not the contender we expected to see in 2024. The Athletic’s playoff model gives the division-leading Seahawks a 38 percent chance to win the division, the Cardinals a 33 percent chance and the Rams a 22 percent chance. That sets up for an excellent finish to the season and turns every NFC West matchup into must-watch television (I’m already clearing my schedule for Rams vs Seahawks in the final week of the regular season).
If Week 13 is any indication, the division could come down to the teams with the most modest preseason expectations and least big-game experience. Seattle rallied from a two-touchdown deficit to defeat the New York Jets and establish themselves as the NFC West’s only team with a winning record, while the Cardinals came oh-so-close to a statement road win over the Minnesota Vikings, who sport a 10-2 record. The Rams are still very much alive after their 21-14 win against the lowly Saints but face the toughest matchup of the three next week with the Buffalo Bills coming to town. Let’s see how the division shakes up after the Seahawks take on Arizona on Sunday — a Seattle win would put a valuable cushion between themselves and their division rivals — but both teams figure to factor into the NFC West conversation until the very end.
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