Welcome to the Riker Report, where I open up my game day files each week and share a quick-hitter observation or development from each of the eight NFL divisions. A week after taking a bye week from the column to cover the Broncos’ rout of the Falcons, I’m back and ready to delve into the most pressing news items from across the league. Here’s what’s going on from each division in Week 12.
AFC East: Jets fire general manager Joe Douglas as disastrous season takes long-term implications
The 2024 New York Jets have endured one of the most nightmarish seasons in the past decade… those who have survived the season, anyway. The regular season still has another month and the Jets, who are currently enjoying a merciful bye week, have already fired head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas. The Jets don’t own the league’s worst record, but no team with Super Bowl aspirations and talent has underperformed more than New York. Now, reports are indicating that Aaron Rodgers is wanting out of the Big Apple, less than two seasons after dictating his way to the Jets and triggering a wide-scale reshaping of an already strong roster.
The Jets’ acquisition of Rodgers didn’t seem like much of a gamble — Rodgers owns four MVP awards and won a Super Bowl trophy. But the move has destroyed New York’s immediate chances at the playoffs and severely impedes their ability to reload and contend in the difficult AFC. The Jets spent precious draft-related and financial resources to bring in Rodgers and star wide receiver Davante Adams, while shaping the offense around Rodgers’ desires. New York’s talent has never been in doubt, but the franchise’s focus should be on life after Rodgers and examining what, exactly, went awry in this high-profile saga.
NFC East: Cowboys stun upstart Commanders with two kick-return touchdowns in the fourth quarter
The best rivalries are intense even when the opposing teams are on opposite sides of the standings — the fan bases and histories are enough to hype up the matchup. That’s why Cowboys-Commanders was appointment viewing, despite Washington being favored by a double-digit point spread and the Cowboys’ disastrous 2024 season. I grew up around the rivalry after a decision between a Chris Cooley jersey and a Tony Romo jersey determined my football fandom as an elementary schooler, and the hype around Washington and quarterback Jayden Daniels promised a resuscitation of this rivalry this year.
Split the game in two ways: the laborious drag of the first three quarters, in which the teams combined for 19 points, and the fourth-quarter chaos, headlined by a combined 41 points. Dallas stuck around despite a pair of field goal miscues in the first half, then seemed to take control on tight end Luke Schoonmaker’s 22-yard touchdown reception from backup quarterback Cooper Rush with just over five minutes remaining. The game was far from over: Washington cut the Cowboys’ lead to 20-17 on a touchdown, then Cowboys returner KaVontae Turpin fumbled, then returned a kickoff 99 yards for another score. Washington added a field goal and threatened to tie on Terry McLaurin’s miraculous 86-yard touchdown catch-and-score… only to miss the game-tying extra point. Another Cowboys’ kickoff return touchdown extended the Dallas lead but also left time on the clock, and the Cowboys only sealed the win on an intercepted Hail Mary attempt as time ran out. Rivalries are defined by their iconic battles, and though all signs indicated otherwise pregame and through the first three quarters, Sunday’s finish was one for the ages.
AFC North: Jameis Winston leads Browns to snowy upset of Pittsburgh on TNF
In a stadium inundated by a night-time snow storm on Thursday Night Football, the 2-8 Cleveland Browns and 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers looked like equals. The two AFC North squads posted identical numbers in first downs (17) and yards per play (5.5), and both teams held the lead in the fourth quarter even before Browns quarterback Jameis Winston led a game-winning drive. Cleveland’s resilience, both through the inclement weather and through a physical matchup, was on full display. The Browns rebounded from a late Winston interception to force a Pittsburgh three-and-out, then compiled a nine-play, 45-yard drive that included a clutch fourth-down conversion and a two-yard touchdown rumble by Nick Chubb. Of the two teams, the Steelers are the ones headed for a playoff berth, but whether it was the snow or the play of the teams themselves, that was a difficult distinction to make in the first game of Week 12.
NFC North: Bears score 11 in the final minute of regulation to force overtime against Minnesota, but Vikings escape Soldier Field in 30-27 victory
Speaking of divisional rivalries that ended in confounding fashion in Week 12, the NFC North featured an overtime matchup with two 300-yard passers, a 14-point comeback and a team scoring 10 points in the final 22 seconds of regulation. Minnesota took a two-possession lead on Chicago with an 11-play drive that took most of the time off of the clock and culminated in a 26-yard field goal, giving the Vikings a 27-16 lead with less than two minutes remaining. All signs pointed to a Minnesota win: Minnesota held greater than a 99.9% chance of victory according to ESPN’s metrics and the Bears had lost their previous four games. Chicago found new life on a 55-yard kickoff return by DeAndre Carter, then cut the deficit to a field goal on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams’ 1-yard touchdown pass to Keenan Allen with 22 seconds and ensuing successful two-point conversion. 27-24, Minnesota. If that seemed miraculous, the Bears recovered a Cairo Santos onside kick to regain possession, moved into field-goal range on a 27-yard connection from Williams to D.J. Moore and sent the game to overtime with a 48-yard field goal. That incredible sequence sent the Soldier Field fans into a frenzy, but the magic was short-lived. The Bears’ offense went backwards and punted after three plays, and the Vikings sealed the win for good with a 29-yard field goal.
The Vikings should never have let their 11-point lead evaporate, and poor special teams coverage and defensive play almost doomed their chances. But a victory is a victory, and this win ensures that Minnesota will finish 2024 with a winning record. The Vikings have a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 15 percent chance of stealing the NFC North from the Lions and Packers, according to The Athletic’s model. Meanwhile, the Bears’ penchant for late-game blunders has essentially eliminated them from postseason contention.
AFC South: Reeling Texans squander opportunity to tighten grasp on division with 32-27 loss to Tennessee
Losers of three of their last four games, the Houston Texans have a lot of soul-searching to do as they aim to punch a ticket to the playoffs for the second-consecutive season. The most befuddling loss came on Sunday afternoon in a defeat to one of the league’s worst teams, the Tennessee Titans, and their mistake-prone quarterback Will Levis. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw his fourth and fifth interceptions in the month of November, while the Texans managed just 40 rushing yards to the Titans’ 132. The final score, a 32-27 win by then 2-8 Tennessee, should not exonerate the Texans’ disappointing offensive effort: Houston’s defense scored more points than its offense in the second half, and the Texans ended the game with a missed field goal, a punt and a safety on their final three drives. Still, Houston will have two prime chances to get on track against Florida-based teams, the Jaguars and Dolphins, and could virtually wrap up their division in a couple weeks. But the Texans are not taking a step forward in their 2024 campaign, and improved play from Stroud and the rest of the Houston offense is essential for the squad to replicate last year’s playoff win.
NFC South: Baker Mayfield does the little things in Buccaneers’ romp over New York
Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield more than handled business in Tampa Bay’s convincing win over the Giants, helping the Bucs keep pace in the suddenly open race for the NFC South. But while Mayfield’s counting stats — 294 passing yards and completions to 11 different receivers — and viral touchdown celebration will capture the headlines this week, his selfless approach to winning games is just as notable. Mayfield rescued a red-zone trip by sprinting back to the backfield and putting his body on the line to recover a fumble. Later on, Mayfield raced downfield to block for running back Bucky Irving on a 56-yard rumble. Seeing quarterbacks run 50 yards downfield to block for a run in a blowout is not a common occurrence, and hustle isn’t considered a measuring stick for quarterbacks. But Mayfield demonstrated his worth as a great teammate, another encouraging development in a Tampa Bay season that could feature a late playoff push.
AFC West: Chargers can’t extend win streak to five games in prime-time battle of Harbaugh brothers
For all of the improvement we’ve seen from the Chargers, from the league’s top-rated defense to the squad’s ability to close out games, the Bolts entered their “Monday Night Football” matchup against the Baltimore Ravens with just one of their seven wins coming against a team with a winning record (the 7-5 Denver Broncos). So the third battle of the Harbaugh head coaches had plenty on the line for the home team, even if last week’s SNF thriller over the Bengals established the Chargers firmly in the AFC playoff picture.
The Chargers failed to parlay their dominance against weaker opponents into their matchup against Baltimore in a 30-23 loss. In doing so, Los Angeles lost a valuable opportunity to assert their position in the AFC’s top tier, which currently includes the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens (the Steelers have an argument, too). Running back J.K. Dobbins’ knee injury removed the Chargers’ top rushing threat early on, but the vaunted Los Angeles defense allowed 30 points for the first time all season and allowed touchdowns of at least 40 yards in the air and on the ground. Ravens running back Derrick Henry gashed the Chargers to the tune of 140 rushing yards, while quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Justice Hill each found the end zone on runs. The teams were separated by just a point entering the final quarter of play, but the Ravens left no doubt about who was the superior team in a bounce-back win. Back to Los Angeles, for a second. The Chargers look vastly improved, are headed in a great direction and should roll to what would be an excellent result in 2024: a playoff berth in Jim Harbaugh’s first year. A deep playoff run, while possible, will require improved play against real contenders.
NFC West: Seahawks continue rampage through NFC West by holding Arizona out of the end zone
Seattle has been one of the most difficult teams to gauge — a three-game winning streak, followed by a three-game skid, will do that — but at 6-5, the Seahawks are poised to make a real run at the playoffs in their first year with head coach Mike McDonald. Seattle faced a make-or-break stretch the past three games with matchups against each of their NFC West opponents, and after dropping a 26-20 game to Los Angeles, the Seahawks held on to upset the 49ers 20-17 in Week 11 before soundly beating the Cardinals 16-6 to take first place in the division. Per The Athletic’s playoff model, Seattle has a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs, still behind the Cardinals’ 50 percent mark, but have considerably higher chances than the Rams (20 percent) and 49ers (16 percent), two supposed Super Bowl contenders. How did the Seahawks get to the top of the most evenly-matched division in football?
Having the NFC’s most productive passing game doesn’t hurt. Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith joins Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow as the only passers in football with more than 3,000 passing yards, though he also leads the league in interceptions (12). Wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has taken an elevated role with at least six receptions in each of the Hawks’ past four contests, and the offensive line has shored up with the return of right tackle Abraham Lucas (a friend of the program). But the defense, the pride of the former defensive coordinator and now-head coach McDonald, has pushed the Seahawks past their NFC West foes. Seattle held the 49ers’ talented offense to 17 points and allowed a single first down in the final nine minutes of regulation. Against Arizona, the host Seahawks tallied five sacks, scored on a pick-six and allowed the Cardinals to reach their red zone just two times — both of which ended in field goal attempts. Seattle seems stuck between true contention and a rebuild, but a strong finish to the regular season to start the Mike McDonald era has to be a thrilling development for the 12th Man.
Bonus: The most surprising takeaways from the NFLPA’s list of the top 50 player jerseys
The NFLPA released the top 50 players in terms of jersey sales from March 1 to August 31, and the list has some definite surprises. Back-to-back Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes leads the way in the number one spot, but C.J. Stroud has apparently re-energized Houston fans after his stellar rookie season and claimed the second spot. Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and Joe Burrow round out the top five — no surprises there — while Aidan Hutchinson and Amon-Ra St. Brown give the Lions a couple of top-10 representatives. Of course, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce was a lock for the top ten, though he barely snuck in at the No. 10 slot.
Who are the biggest surprises to crack the top 50? Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence somehow boasts the 20th most popular jersey, despite his forgettable 2023 season and his limited exposure in one of the league’s smaller markets. Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker at 24 is also shocking and most likely due to his headline-making comments rather than his play. I can’t ignore Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix (35) barely edging out the quarterback he replaced in Denver, Russell Wilson (38). On the flipside, it appears that awards don’t generate much jersey sales: MVP Lamar Jackson (23), Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett (49), Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson (43) fell below my expectations, though Stroud and 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey made the top 10.
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