We’re halfway through the 2024 NFL season, and let me tell you, I did not foresee the Sam Darnold-led Minnesota Vikings emerging as a Super Bowl contender when the offseason began. The Chiefs’ undefeated start (and Patrick Mahomes’ turnover woes), the 49ers’ .500 record and the precipitous declines of the Cowboys, Jets and Dolphins also rank among the season’s eyebrow-raising early developments, and a playoff picture with plenty of new names is starting to take shape.
In lieu of producing another Riker Report for Week 8, I’m taking a look around the league and dividing the 32 teams into four tiers: playoff locks, primed for the playoffs, in the mix and the maybe next year categories (which features an astounding tally of 2-7 teams).
The top and bottom tiers are great bets to maintain their current standing as the playoffs start to solidify, while the second and third tiers are the battleground for the remaining playoff bids. I’ve added in my thoughts on each team, along with their projected playoff chances per The Athletic’s model.
Playoff Locks — Five teams I’d guarantee will make the playoffs, barring injury
Kansas City Chiefs (8-0, Playoff chances: greater than 99%) — The Chiefs’ undefeated record seems unlikely to continue through the end of the regular season, but Kansas City has to feel fantastic about its chances at a Super Bowl three-peat.
Detroit Lions (7-1, Playoff chances: greater than 99%) — Detroit has looked like the NFC’s most dominant team and have been nearly unstoppable on offense, led by MVP candidate Jared Goff’s continued progression.
Baltimore Ravens (6-3, Playoff chances: 95%) — The Ravens’ losses to lowly Las Vegas and Cleveland are concerning and the pass defense is porous, but Baltimore’s offense has taken a major step forward… and that’s with the league’s reigning MVP at quarterback.
Buffalo Bills (7-2, Playoff chances: greater than 99%) — Buffalo is running away with the AFC East with a remarkable four-game lead. I still see the Bills, my preseason pick to win the AFC, as the Chiefs’ biggest challenger.
Houston Texans (6-3, Playoff chances: 93%) — Another AFC team with a sizable divisional lead, the Texans have sustained major losses but should roll to a second-straight AFC South crown.
Primed for the Playoffs — The rest of my projected playoff field
Minnesota Vikings (6-2, Playoff chances: 87%) — The Vikings’ defensive intensity and high-powered offense have salvaged a season that started with rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending injury. The Lions are the class of the division, but Minnesota is proving to be a force in its own right.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2, Playoff chances: 94%) — Running back Saquon Barkley has proven himself as the offseason’s best free-agent acquisition with a weekly dosage of highlight plays, while an embattled defense has passed its early season test. While Philadelphia is the best-positioned NFC East team to make a deep playoff run, last season’s winter slump gives reason for pause.
Atlanta Falcons (6-3, Playoff chances: 95%) — The NFC’s equivalent to the Bills, the Falcons have eked out impressive wins over the Eagles and Buccaneers (twice) and are in firm control of the NFC South. If they can extend their lead over the gutsy Buccaneers in the upcoming weeks, the division will be theirs to lose.
Los Angeles Chargers (5-3, Playoff chances: 84%) — Los Angeles’ defense in Jim Harbaugh’s first year at the helm is the trend more NFL followers should be tracking. The Chargers have allowed just 12.6 points per game, two fewer points than the next closest team, and an October win over the Broncos has moved the Chargers firmly into second place in the AFC West. Quarterback Justin Herbert is starting to find his groove, too.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2, Playoff chances: 75%) — The Steelers’ first half of the season had more drama than some decades of Pittsburgh football, and I’m not sure that the quarterback situation is fully settled. But the Steelers are well-positioned for a playoff berth and are holding their own in a division that features Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
Washington Commanders (7-2, Playoff chances: 94%) — Washington deserves all its flowers as the breakout team of the first half of the season. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been historically great, while head coach Dan Quinn has turned around a losing culture in Washington and put the Commanders on the precipice of a double-digit win total. The Commanders are less of a known commodity than the Eagles, but a playoff berth should be in the cards if Daniels can stay healthy.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-5, Playoff chances: 51%) — The only team with a losing record to make this tear, the Bengals have as lopsided of a roster construction of any team on this list: fantastic offense, subpar defense. Quarterback Joe Burrow ranks in the top three league-wide in passing touchdowns and QBR, but Cincinnati has allowed 25.2 points per game and allowed at least 37 points to Philadelphia, Washington and Baltimore. They have the pieces to make a deep run, though the AFC North could eat them alive, too.
San Francisco 49ers (4-4, Playoff chances: 41%) — The reigning NFC champions are sitting at exactly .500 nine weeks into the season, but the Niners have reason for optimism. Running back Christian McCaffrey is nearing a return, and the 49ers are only a half-game out of the NFC West lead. Their offensive firepower and top-notch coaching staff should spell another playoff appearance.
Green Bay Packers (6-3, Playoff chances: 50%) — Quarterback Jordan Love has struggled with injuries and inconsistency to open the 2024 season, but the Packers’ young roster has kept this team in contention in the NFC North race. Green Bay will need to avenge early-season losses to Minnesota and Detroit to steal the division title, but a Wild Card berth is a real possibility even if they can’t end the regular season on a hot streak.
In the Mix — It’s an uphill battle to make the playoffs, but these teams are in contention
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5, Playoff chances: 26%) — If anyone can sneak by the Falcons in the NFC South, it’s the reigning NFC champion Buccaneers. But a sweep at the hands of Atlanta and a season-ending injury to wide receiver Chris Godwin have offset Baker Mayfield’s prolific offensive production, making a wild card berth a more likely path for the Buccaneers.
Arizona Cardinals (5-4, Playoff chances: 46%) — Somehow, Arizona leads the NFC West through the halfway point, and the Cardinals also boast the highest chances of making the playoffs in a division that also includes perennial playoff teams San Francisco and Los Angeles. If Kyler Murray can help lead the Cards to continued divisional success, Arizona may come away with the NFC West crown for the first time since 2015. A Wild Card spot would be a major win, too.
Chicago Bears (4-4, Playoff chances: 12%) — Even in the NFL’s best division, the Bears kept pace through the first six weeks, and in doing so justified the hype generated around the team through first overall pick Caleb Williams and HBO’s Hard Knocks documentary. Chicago’s failed coverage on Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary attempt reverted the Bears back to their losing ways, and a 29-9 rout at the hands of the Cardinals bumped Chicago to a .500 record. The future may not be right now for the Bears, though Williams has had a promising start to his NFL career.
Denver Broncos (5-4, Playoff chances: 29%) — The Broncos should be pleased with their 2024 returns, from the early success of rookie quarterback Bo Nix to the defense’s rebound in their second year with defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. Still, Denver is not quite in contention yet and needs to prove it can beat real contenders — none of the teams they’ve knocked off hold winning records.
Los Angeles Rams (4-4, Playoff chances: 42%) — Led by veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford and head coach Sean McVay, the Rams navigated the storms of September and October (and the injury bug) and sit just a half-game out of the top spot in the NFC West, now with the core pieces of their passing game healthy and on a hot streak. The Rams’ defense has regressed to the middle of the pack without All-Pro defensive lineman Aaron Donald, but the grit and offensive firepower the Rams have displayed has them right where they want to be at the midseason point.
Dallas Cowboys (3-5, Playoff chances: 7%) — With quarterback Dak Prescott headed for the injured reserve and linebacker Micah Parsons still out of action, the Cowboys are trending out of playoff contention quickly. The 2024 season has been a disaster for Dallas, from injuries to the rushing attack’s malaise to routs at the hands of Detroit and New Orleans, and the Cowboys seem headed for a major offseason makeover. I’ll keep them in the “In the Mix” tier and hold onto hope for a bit longer, but three consecutive games against playoff contenders in Philadelphia, Washington and Houston could extinguish their playoff hopes.
Seattle Seahawks (4-5, Playoff chances: 6%) — Quarterback Geno Smith has alternated moments of brilliance (an NFL-leading 2,560 passing yards) and utter frustration (a three-interception performance in a 26-20 loss to the Rams), and his performance has been emblematic of a team that showed immediate promise under new head coach Mike McDonald but has failed to capitalize on a streaky division. The Seahawks have lost five of their last six and are winless in the division, but they’ll have a couple chances to change that with upcoming games against San Francisco and Arizona.
Miami Dolphins (2-6, Playoff chances: 20%) — The Dolphins’ offense cratered in quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion-inflicted absence, but although Tagovailoa is back under center, his return has not culminated in any wins. Miami has lost to Arizona and Buffalo by a combined four points over the past two weeks, but if the offense can revert back to its 2023 form, a late run at a Wild Card berth is a tantalizing possibility.
The Maybe Next Year Tier — Seriously, how many 2-7 teams can one league have?
New York Jets (3-6, Playoff chances: 18%) — They’re the only team in this tier with three wins and the only team with a projected playoff chance above two percent, but the Jets’ turbulent season seems to have grounded their playoff hopes. A midseason head coach firing and an underperforming offense have turned the Jets into one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments, and unless the Jets can find more ways to play on Thursday Night Football (they’ve won both of their contests on TNF), they will be out of the playoff picture by December.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7, Playoff chances: 2%) — Jacksonville has not steadied itself after an 0-4 start, and head coach Doug Pederson may be coaching for his job in the final few weeks. The good news: the AFC South is one of the NFL’s weaker divisions, and the Jaguars have a lenient schedule in the regular season’s final five weeks.
Carolina Panthers (2-7, Playoff chances: >1%) — For chunks of the season, the Panthers have looked incapable of winning NFL games. In games against Las Vegas and New Orleans, the Panthers’ respective quarterbacks, Andy Dalton and Bryce Young, have reversed those expectations and led thrilling wins as massive underdogs. If Young takes steps forward in his return to the starting lineup, Carolina will come away from 2024 with a real positive.
New England Patriots (2-7, Playoff chances: >1%) — Quarterback Drake Maye looks promising, but the Patriots’ best years are ahead and Maye’s supporting cast doesn’t match up against Caleb Williams’ playmakers in Chicago and Jayden Daniels’ receivers in Washington. A third-place finish in the AFC East could be a step forward, but this roster needs a major boost to become a playoff-caliber squad.
New Orleans Saints (2-7, Playoff chances: >1%) — After starting off 2-0 with emphatic wins over Carolina and Dallas, the Saints dropped their next seven games and fired head coach Dennis Allen. This team has a long road back to contention, and they lack the pieces for a midseason turnaround and run at a Wild Card berth.
Tennessee Titans (2-6, Playoff chances: 2%) — The Will Levis-Mason Rudolph quarterback combo has performed about as well as could be expected, and Tennessee is closer to the first overall pick than a run at the playoffs in 2024. In an encouraging development, Tennessee’s defense has taken a major step forward, leading the league with an average of 269.1 yards per game allowed.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7, Playoff chances: >1%) — Stability has been an elusive trait for the Raiders over the past decade, but especially in recent seasons. A year after firing head coach Josh McDaniels around Halloween, Las Vegas opted to part ways with offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to spark a nonexistent ground game and a quarterback position that seems to change its starter each week. Maybe next year will end the dubious streak.
New York Giants (2-7, Playoff chances: >1%) — While Washington made the leap from mediocrity to contention in 2023, the Giants have been left in the dust. New York ranks last in the NFL in points per game (15.4) and seems no closer to finding a franchise quarterback after selecting a wide receiver, Malik Nabers, in the 2024 NFL Draft. It’s time for another reset in New York.
Cleveland Browns (2-7, Playoff chances: 1%) — The Browns have upgraded at quarterback with the insertion of backup quarterback Jameis Winston into the starting lineup and the defense is one of the league’s best units, but the AFC North is simply too good for Cleveland to sneak back into the Wild Card picture.
Riker's Block 