This season, the NFL is implementing a revamped kickoff structure aimed at reducing player injuries and enhancing the excitement of what has become a routine, predictable play. Players on both teams form a line of scrimmage of sorts, while the kicker and returner are stationed a good bit away from the trenches. In my offseason research (the preseason game I attended between the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals), the new aesthetic of the kickoff was a more pertinent observation than the quality of the play.
The NFL is reinventing its kickoff, and I’m getting in on the fun and evolving how I kick off my NFL coverage on Riker’s Block. I’m shining the spotlight on the Super Bowl contenders and shaving off my summaries of the teams I expect to dwell in the divisional cellars (sorry, not sorry Washington Commanders). I’m using four labels to size up the races — favorites, contenders, dark horses, long shots — and picking a couple teams from each conference that fit the bill. It wouldn’t be an NFL preview without predictions (it also wouldn’t be an NFL preview without a whole lot of incorrect ones), and I have some bold calls for the teams that made the list.
It’s time.
The Favorites
Kansas City Chiefs
Why they could win it: They have the best quarterback and coach in the NFL, have vastly improved their defense and offensive line from past title-winning teams and did not suffer major losses on their coaching staff. The Kansas City offense is the most dangerous in football and will be its biggest asset in their pursuit of a third-straight Super Bowl championship. Considering the evolution of the Chiefs since starting Patrick Mahomes and winning their first title, Kansas City can be trusted to correct course and adjust to adversity and can win big in multiple ways.
Why they might not: The NFL is a difficult league, and the Chiefs’ recent Super Bowl wins have been games of inches that worked in their favor. KC is not head-and-shoulders over the rest of the league, and they’ll have a huge target on their back all season. On the field, the receiving corps is unproven, while the secondary will have to replace L’Jarius Sneed.
Season Prediction: 15-2, lose in the AFC Conference Championship to the Buffalo Bills
San Francisco 49ers
Why they could win it: Brock Purdy has established himself as an elite quarterback a couple seasons into his young career, and his arsenal of weapons has only improved. How do you stop an offense that features Madden 25 cover athlete and Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey, two All-Pro receivers in Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, another All-Pro in tight end George Kittle and a first-round pick at receiver, Ricky Pearsall? That is an embarrassment of riches, and that’s not including a stout O-Line, a perennially potent defense and a top-tier coaching staff. The 49ers came oh-so-close to their first Super Bowl of the 21st century last year and have the pieces to strike gold this time around.
Why they might not: The NFC is catching up to San Francisco, and playoff escapes against up-and-coming teams in Green Bay and Detroit proved that the 49ers have little margin for error in the talented NFC. San Francisco’s late-game struggles and offseason turmoil are also valid causes for concern, though Aiyuk’s return amid a possible trade is a welcome development. Special teams is a legitimate worry as well after Jake Moody’s struggles in 2023.
Season Prediction: 13-4, Win the Super Bowl
The Contenders
Detroit Lions
Why they could win it: Though it didn’t culminate in the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance, the Lions’ 2023 season was galvanizing for the franchise and its fanbase and signaled the franchise’s first foray into Super Bowl contention in decades… or perhaps even longer. Detroit is squarely in its prime as a contender, led by a quarterback who has reached three NFC Championships, an array of playmakers on both sides of the ball and a head coach who has given the Lions an identity that suits Detroit perfectly. These Lions are as fun a story to root for as any in the league, and this offseason continued their upward trajectory.
Why they might not: Quarterback Jared Goff is a proven commodity but not one of the league’s best quarterbacks, and maybe not even in his own division. The Lions will also have to fend off the Packers for the NFC North title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and improvement from a defense that ranked in the league’s bottom 10 in points allowed per game will be a necessity.
Season Prediction: 10-7, lose in the Divisional Round to the San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens
Why they could win it: The Ravens’ roster stacks up well with any in the league and is led by a two-time MVP quarterback on a mission to make a career-defining playoff run. Lamar Jackson was electric in a healthy 2023 campaign and flourished in his first year with offensive coordinator Todd Monken. He’ll now have one of the league’s best running backs, offseason addition Derrick Henry, to team up with in the Baltimore backfield and still has room to continue his improvement as a passer. Defensively, the Ravens boast the league’s best secondary and have two of the NFL’s best defenders in linebacker Roquan Smith and safety Kyle Hamilton. Kicker Justin Tucker needs no introduction and will aid in the Ravens’ championship chase.
Why they might not: Baltimore lost a lot this offseason, including defensive coordinator Mike McDonald (the Seahawks’ new coach), its stable of running backs and pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney, among others. The Ravens are stout defensively, but new defensive coordinator Zach Orr is just 31 years old and has yet to hold a coordinator role. On offense, the Ravens will send out a new-look offensive line and look to its receiving corps for a more consistent year. Having a healthy Joe Burrow back in the AFC North is a scary thought, too.
Season Prediction: 11-6, lose in the Divisional Round to the Buffalo Bills
Philadelphia Eagles
Why they could win it: The Eagles were minutes away from winning the Super Bowl in Glendale, Arizona a couple seasons ago, and they’ve made aggressive moves to upgrade their roster and keep pace with the league’s other contenders. Former Giants running back Saquon Barkley is the new big name in Philadelphia, giving the Eagles another playmaker to complement receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and quarterback Jalen Hurts. The Eagles also addressed their defense, a major reason behind their stunning collapse at the tail end of 2023. On paper, Philadelphia’s offseason should vaunt them past the Cowboys as the NFC East favorite and return them to Super Bowl contender status.
Why they might not: The Eagles’ slide at the end of last season and loss in the Wild Card round are alarming for a team that looked to have staying power in the NFC. Head coach Nick Sirianni has a lot to prove this season, and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will need to shore up a defense that has routinely proven to be the Eagles’ Achilles heel. Philadelphia should be able to eke out a playoff spot in a weak division, but the deep runs the fanbase has become accustomed to cheering on are not a given considering the quality of competition in the NFC.
Season Prediction: 12-5, lose in Divisional Round to the Dallas Cowboys
Cincinnati Bengals
Why they could win it: Quarterback Joe Burrow is back and healthy, and Cincy has been the thorn in the Chiefs’ side when they’re clicking on offense. The Bengals are only three years removed from their Super Bowl season and still feature many of the stars from those teams, including Burrow, wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase and defensive end Trey Hendrickson. Cincinnati missed the playoffs in Burrow’s absence, but the Bengals’ ability to stay afloat and in playoff contention is a testament to their roster and underrated coaching staff. If Burrow is healthy in the regular season and into the winter, the Bengals should be feared as one of the AFC’s top teams.
Why they might not: Chase’s status for the beginning of the season is in doubt, and his absence would be a big domino to fall for the Bengals’ season. Cincinnati also has to prove that it is one of the best teams in its own division before it can establish itself again as a Super Bowl contender. How will the Bengals hold up playing against the NFL’s reigning MVP in Baltimore, its best defense in Cleveland and another punishing team in Pittsburgh twice a year? The Bengals have a Super Bowl ceiling but a lot of questions they will have to answer to get there.
Season Prediction: 11-6, lose in Divisional Round to the Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers
Why they could win it: The start of the Jordan Love era was shaky, but by season’s end, the Packers were one of the league’s hottest teams, shooting into the playoff bracket and nearly reaching the NFC Championship as a seven seed. Another year of experience bodes well for the young Packers, who are led by a perennial winner in head coach Matt LaFleur and an exciting offense. Green Bay won’t be scared of anyone, and the Lions should be on high alert in defense of their NFC North crown. If Love proves he’s worthy of his new $220 million contract, the Packers should be right in the mix for their first Super Bowl appearance in more than a decade.
Why they might not: The Packers made a bit of a gamble by handing such a massive contract to a quarterback with 18 regular season starts under his belt, and Green Bay doesn’t have the supporting cast or splashy offseason additions of the other NFC contenders. Love and Green Bay will also have to unseat the more well-rounded Lions to take the division title and earn a home playoff game at Lambeau Field, and a leap in year two of Love’s time as a starter is no guarantee. The Packers make sense as a trendy sleeper pick to make it to the Super Bowl, but they are a tier below the 49ers, Eagles and Lions entering the season.
Season Prediction: 12-5, lose in Wild Card Round to the Detroit Lions
The Dark Horses
Houston Texans
Why they could win it: The Texans were the breakout stars of the 2023 season, surging to the AFC South crown behind Offensive Player of the Year C.J. Stroud’s stellar campaign. Stroud has an improved supporting cast in Year Two with free agent acquisitions wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon joining the Texans’ star-studded offense. Defensively, Will Anderson will look to follow up a magnificent rookie season. Second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans will be on the spotlight after leading Houston to the divisional round in his first season, and while the Texans’ postseason spot in the crowded AFC is no sure thing, Ryans has certainly succeeded in turning Houston’s culture around in the post-Deshaun Watson era. Plus, new uniforms in Houston!
Why they might not: The Texans’ finish last year was deceptively strong, and a regression to the mean could be in the cards. Despite Trevor Lawrence missing a good chunk of the 2023 stretch run in Jacksonville and Indianapolis rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson missing almost all of last season, it took the Texans until the final weeks to clinch a playoff spot. Diggs and Mixon are 30 and 28, respectively, and Houston will face stiff competition again from the Jaguars and Colts for the division. That’s just to get into the playoffs — can C.J. Stroud knock off Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes in a playoff game at this stage of his career?
Season Prediction: 10-7, lose to the Cincinnati Bengals in the Wild Card Round
Dallas Cowboys
Why they could win it: Maybe my favorite part of this exercise every year — unlimited optimism about the Cowboys’ Super Bowl chances. Let me lay out the case why this season, 2024, might actually be the long-awaited year Dallas makes a run in the playoffs. The number one commodity in football — an elite quarterback. The Cowboys’ guy, Dak Prescott, finished as the runner-up in MVP voting and will have All-Pro receiver CeeDee Lamb to connect with once again. At the most crucial defensive position, Dallas boasts one of the best defensive playmakers and pass rushers in Micah Parsons, who should be in the mix for his first Defensive Player of the Year award. He’ll have great pieces around him, too, including two interception vacuums in defensive backs DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs later in the season. Collectively, the Cowboys have won 12 games for three consecutive seasons under head coach Mike McCarthy, and they should be back in the postseason mix and revving up sports talk shows into January if their stars stay healthy.
Why they might not: The Cowboys endured a lackluster offseason that does not inspire confidence in a deep playoff run or an all-in approach. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn departed for division rival Washington, while the offense lost running back Tony Pollard and longtime left tackle Tyron Smith, among others. Dallas is thin on the offensive line and old at running back, and injury questions on both sides of the ball could determine if they find their footing early on. And then there’s the matter of the playoffs. In their three playoff losses, the Cowboys have failed to score more than seven points in the first half, and the defensive collapse against seven seed Green Bay still traumatizes Cowboys fans. To win big this year, the Cowboys will need to do more with less.
Season Prediction: 11-6, lose in NFC Championship to the San Francisco 49ers
Miami Dolphins
Why they could win it: At Miami’s peak last season — the 70-20 clinic against the Broncos — the Dolphins looked unstoppable and a Super Bowl contender. Of course, they lost the following week to the Bills, but Miami showed it could be the best team in the NFL when it is on its “A” game. NFL players voted wide receiver Tyreek Hill as the best player in the league, but it was quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who really took a step forward and elevated the Dolphins’ ceiling. A healthy running back combination of second-year stud DeVon Achane and veteran Raheem Mostert should scare opposing defenses and provide balance. Miami has the pieces to win its first playoff game since 2000, and they may be one of the most fun teams to root for in the league — which has to count for something.
Why they might not: Miami hasn’t captured the AFC East title since 2008, and their two most imposing division rivals, the Bills and Jets, boast Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, respectively. Both teams also have superior defenses and could crowd the flashy Dolphins out of the playoffs. Tagovailoa also has to prove he can win cold-weather games after being shut down in freezing Kansas City last January. Brand-new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver will have a tough task in slowing down the other potent offensive attacks in the AFC.
Season Prediction: 10-7, lose to the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card Round
Los Angeles Rams
Why they could win it: They’ve done it before, and a healthy Rams offense should strike fear into the hearts of every defender in the league. Quarterback Matthew Stafford and head coach Sean McVay ran the table in the NFC just a couple seasons ago, and they’ll have two 1,400-yard All-Pro receivers in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and a 12-touchdown rusher in Kyren Williams at their disposal. While the Rams are less loaded on defense than in their Aaron Donald/Jalen Ramsey days following Donald’s retirement this offseason, new defensive coordinator Chris Shula should still have plenty of talent to mold as Los Angeles looks to upset the 49ers and steal the NFC West. Despite all that went haywire last season, the Rams came within a field goal of upsetting the Lions in the playoffs last season and should be primed to contend in the NFC field again this winter.
Why they might not: Donald’s departure is a major loss — it’s impossible to replace a Hall of Fame talent or the attention he commanded. The defense also lost its coordinator in Raheem Morris, who is now at the helm of the Falcons. On offense, Kupp’s recovery is a major question mark, while Stafford is entering his age-36 season. The Rams should be an interesting team to watch and won’t make it easy for any of the league’s elite, but they’re not leading the charge in the NFC, either.
Season Prediction: 9-8, miss the playoffs
Atlanta Falcons
Why they could win it: The Falcons had the most shocking offseason of any team this spring and summer, but there’s no doubt — they upgraded at quarterback. Veteran Kirk Cousins brings a level of stability that should establish the Falcons as NFC South favorites, while rookie Michael Penix Jr. should excite Atlanta fans for the future at the position. Regardless of who starts down the stretch and potentially into the postseason, running back Bijan Robinson and wide receiver Drake London are capable of Pro Bowl seasons and already have fantasy owners drooling. The Falcons are less flashy defensively, but the late-summer additions of safety Justin Simmons and pass rusher Matt Judon are great signs for a unit that is under the guidance of new head coach Raheem Morris.
Why they might not: Atlanta has been one of the league’s most frustrating teams in recent seasons, and while an NFC South crown would be a step forward, it wouldn’t be what Falcons fans are truly eyeing — a Super Bowl trophy. Is Cousins the guy to lead them there? He has had better receivers, more offensive-minded head coaches and has had better all-around teams than he has in Atlanta (not to mention that he is 36) and played in just eight games last season due to an Achilles tendon injury. The division is very winnable, but Tampa Bay, the defending NFC South champion, is no pushover, either.
Season Prediction: 10-7, lose in Wild Card Round to the Dallas Cowboys
Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they could win it: The Jaguars over the Jets here?? Hear me out on this. The Jaguars have a more accomplished coach (Super Bowl champion Doug Pederson vs. the Jets’ Robert Saleh), a younger and more athletic quarterback (Trevor Lawrence vs 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers) and a much, much easier division. If Lawrence finished the 2023 regular season healthy, there’s a great chance Jacksonville would have maintained its commanding AFC South lead and flipped the narrative about its trajectory. The offensive arsenal across the ground and air attacks is exciting, and defensive end Josh Hines-Allen is coming off a season in which he amassed 17.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. Lawrence needs to take a major step forward to establish himself as one of the five or 10 best quarterbacks in the league and a Super Bowl-worthy quarterback. If he does, even the Chiefs should be on high alert.
Why they might not: Aside from the point they’re the Jaguars… Lawrence’s health and progression are legitimate points of concern, and Jacksonville’s 2023 slide doesn’t bode well for its 2024 outlook. It feels like the Jaguars are playing catch up to the imposing Texans, from the quarterback and head coach to the supporting cast and defense. In terms of a postseason resume or a track record against elite teams, the Jaguars don’t inspire much confidence in either. The Jaguars need to win in 2024, or major changes should be on the way next offseason.
Season Prediction: 10-7, lose in Wild Card Round to the Cincinnati Bengals
The Long Shots
New York Jets
Why they could win it: Just imagine a full season of a healthy four-time MVP in Aaron Rodgers with arguably the NFL’s best defense — I know the Jets’ long-tortured fans have harbored those exact dreams for months. On paper, New York should be a contender. Rodgers, running back Breece Hall and wide receiver Garrett Wilson sure seems like one of the league’s best offensive trios, and the Jets’ defense could be the best Rodgers has ever played alongside. Expectations should be held in check after Rodgers lasted four snaps in the 2023 season, but the upside for the Jets is tantalizing.
Why they might not: I don’t think they’ll get there. Rodgers has not been effective or on an All Pro level in a couple years, due to both regression and injury. If he’s not his MVP self this season, the Jets will have a turbulent season. The Jets will also have to move past two 2023 playoff participants in the Dolphins and Bills and have yet to reach the playoffs in three seasons under head coach Robert Saleh.
Season Prediction: 9-8, miss playoffs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why they could win it: It took the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13 seasons to make the playoffs again after reaching the Wild Card Round in 2007, a string of ineptitude that came to a close only after the franchise lured Tom Brady to central Florida. But it hasn’t taken long for the franchise to recover after Brady’s retirement — the franchise won an additional regular season game, a playoff game over the heavily favored Philadelphia Eagles and put together a solid performance against the Lions in the Divisional Round. An offense led by rejuvenated quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Mike Evans proved to be enough to win the NFC South, and almost all of them are back for more in 2024. Tampa Bay has more than enough talent and cohesion to win the weakest division in football, and if they improve on last year’s surprising showing, they’ll be in the mix with the NFC’s contenders.
Why they might not: The Buccaneers are more of a proven product than their division rivals in Atlanta, but they lack a Super Bowl ceiling. Reaching the divisional round with a 9-8 record is gutsy but difficult to replicate, and Mayfield making the jump to true franchise quarterback is a step I’m hesitant to expect with his career trajectory. The Tampa Bay defense has some familiar names but isn’t the unit that shut down Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl, and while the division is eminently winnable, a deep run beyond that might be a pipe dream.
Season Prediction: 7-10, miss playoffs
Los Angeles Chargers
Why they could win it: I’ve forecasted long Chargers playoff runs for years, from the days of Philip Rivers and Norv Turner to Justin Herbert and Brandon Staley. And my excitement in this year’s team comes from their head coach-quarterback combination once more. Justin Herbert has enjoyed a brilliant start to his Los Angeles career but has yet to win a playoff game, while Jim Harbaugh is the exact definition of a big game coach, bringing a national championship at Michigan and a Super Bowl appearance to the 49ers to SoFi Stadium. While the Chiefs are the class of the AFC West, the division appeared winnable for most of last regular season, and the Chargers should be a step above the Broncos and Raiders if Herbert gets healthy by the start of the regular season. The defense returns premier veteran pass rushers in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack and a two-time All-Pro in Derwin James.
Why they might not: Let’s set the Chiefs’ dominance in the AFC West aside and focus simply on the issues with the Chargers. For one, this squad lost a lot in the offseason. Pro Bowl regular Keenan Allen departed for Chicago, while the Chargers’ second-best receiver, Mike Williams, joined Aaron Rodgers in New York. Lead back Austin Ekeler is also out, replaced by Baltimore outcasts J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. The defense will have more continuity, but even with Harbaugh at the helm, this is the league’s most snake-bitten team and enters the season with plenty of injury concerns. All that to say, the Super Bowl is quite a stretch this season.
Season Prediction: 9-8, miss playoffs
Chicago Bears
Why they could win it: I gave long shot consideration to a great many teams, including the Indianapolis Colts, Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns. Nothing is more fun than seeing an absolute wild card run the table, and each of those squads could sneak in the postseason and make some noise. But none of them could match the excitement of a deep playoff run from the Chicago Bears, the darlings of HBO’s Hard Knocks series, and a Bears run would be the storyline of the season. Chicago’s hopes start with quarterback and first overall pick Caleb Williams and his wide receiving trio of six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen, No. 1 guy D.J. Moore and first-round pick Rome Odunze, while the explosive D’Andre Swift should provide balance in the backfield. That’s a lot of new pieces, but the Bears also ended 2023 on a strong note with five wins in their final eight games (including definitive wins over Atlanta and Detroit). Da Bears in the postseason? That would be too much fun for Lake Michigan’s shoreline to handle.
Why they might not: The Super Bowl might be precocious for an offense with a rookie starting quarterback, a head coach without a playoff appearance and a franchise without a playoff win since the 2010 season. I want to see Williams in NFL action first before I crown him the next Mahomes, and I’m interested to see how the Bears compete against the two contenders in their division, Detroit and Green Bay. With so many new pieces, the Bears will also have a lot of adjustments to make before they hit their stride — but their future is bright.
Season Prediction: 9-8, Lose in Wild Card Round to the Philadelphia Eagles
Playoff Predictions
| AFC Playoffs | NFC Playoffs |
| AFC East Winner: Buffalo Bills, 11-6 | NFC East Winner: Philadelphia Eagles, 12-5 |
| AFC North Winner: Baltimore Ravens, 11-6 | NFC North Winner: Green Bay Packers, 12-5 |
| AFC South Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars, 10-7 | NFC South Winner: Atlanta Falcons, 10-7 |
| AFC West Winner: Kansas City Chiefs, 15-2 | NFC West Winner: San Francisco 49ers, 13-4 |
| AFC Wild Card 1: Cincinnati Bengals, 11-6 | NFC Wild Card 1: Dallas Cowboys, 11-6 |
| AFC Wild Card 2: Miami Dolphins, 10-7 | NFC Wild Card 2: Detroit Lions, 10-7 |
| AFC Wild Card 3: Houston Texans, 10-7 | NFC Wild Card 3: Chicago Bears, 9-8 |
| AFC Champion: Buffalo Bills | NFC Champion: San Francisco 49ers (WINNER) |
Riker's Block 