In the chilly Christmas Eve air at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton and New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick shared a field for possibly the last head-to-head matchup of their accomplished careers.
Payton and Belichick are two of the most successful coaches of their generation, sharing dominant track records, playoff glory and total turnarounds of previously mediocre franchises. They’ve had another thread in common throughout their careers — generational quarterbacks in Drew Brees and Tom Brady, respectively.
But in the hours before the primetime clash between the Broncos and Patriots, the relationship between the coaches and their current quarterbacks looked much more bleak.
Belichick’s historic tenure with the Patriots ended with a thud, a 4-13 season that reached its lowest point in Belichick’s benching of Brady’s successor, first-round pick Mac Jones, and culminated in his exit in New England. On the other sideline, Payton was coaching what would turn out to be Russell Wilson’s final start in Denver, marking the end of a tumultuous partnership between the Super Bowl-winning coach and Super Bowl-winning quarterback. Belichick’s Patriots, led by backup Bailey Zappe, sprung the Christmas Eve upset on the host Broncos, effectively eliminating Denver’s playoff hopes and leading to both teams’ restarts at the quarterback position.
After decades of unprecedented success in New England, Belichick couldn’t find another elite quarterback to partner with in building toward a Super Bowl, and even six Super Bowl titles couldn’t buy Belichick infinite patience from Patriots owner Robert Kraft or another head-coaching position.
Payton, who is relatively just getting started in Denver after an 8-9 debut season, should take note.
The surest way for Payton’s time in Denver to be as successful as his years in New Orleans is reaping the rewards of strong quarterback play, and with the Broncos’ recent investment in the position and selection of Oregon’s Bo Nix in the first round of the NFL Draft, Payton’s path to the playoffs and serious contention is set. For as much as Payton has achieved in his coaching career, his fate and legacy with the Broncos is tied to the progression of Nix, the first quarterback he has drafted in the first round.
Few franchises have seen their success ebb and flow with the quality of their quarterbacks like the Broncos. The franchise captured its three Super Bowl titles with John Elway and Peyton Manning. When the quarterbacks haven’t been as legendary, Bronco quarterbacks have been a hard watch. The Broncos have only drafted one quarterback that has gone on to win a playoff game with Denver, a Florida product named Tim Tebow, and have started 13 players at quarterback since Peyton Manning’s retirement.
Sean Payton’s track record with his quarterbacks has been similarly hit-or-miss. Brees’ emergence in New Orleans was a historic success story, but Payton couldn’t turn Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston into long-term options and Brees successors for the Saints. Wilson’s partnership with Payton ended after just 15 games. This is not to deny Payton’s offensive genius — Payton worked with Brees for 14 of his 15 seasons in New Orleans, after all — but he will have plenty to prove in developing Nix into the Broncos’ starting quarterback.
Nix’s selection starts the clock on the pressure on Payton to mold the Broncos into a contender. Denver isn’t expected to contend in 2024, and a poor season is unlikely to affect Payton’s long-term future. But beyond that? These Broncos will need to show substantial progress.
Patience runs thin in the NFL — the 2018 Patriots and 2017 Eagles won Super Bowls, then hired new head coaches within the next five seasons when they could not solve their team’s quarterback position. That’s for teams that have already reached the mountaintop, and history is similarly foreboding for coaches who have failed to achieve winning records across their first full three seasons with a team.
Head coaches retained after not posting winning records in their first full three seasons
Dom Capers 2002-2005 Texans (fired)
Gary Kubiak 2006-08 Texans (retained eight seasons)
Jason Garrett 2011-2013 Cowboys (retained 9 ½ seasons)
Jeff Fisher 2012-2016 Rams (fired in fifth season)
Jon Gruden 2018-21 Raiders (fired)
Ron Rivera 2020-2023 Commanders (fired)
Robert Saleh 2021-Present Jets (TBD)
Head coaches who lasted three seasons and did not post a winning record
Mike Riley 1999-2001 Chargers
George Seifert 1999-2001 Panthers
Dave Campo 2000-2002 Cowboys
Dave McGinnis 2001-2003 Cardinals
Rod Marinelli 2006-08 Lions
Chan Gailey 2010-2012 Bills
Gus Bradley 2013-2015 Jaguars
John Fox 2015-17 Bears
Vic Fangio 2019-2021 Broncos
Arthur Smith 2021-23 Falcons
Only two coaches, Jason Garrett with the Cowboys and Gary Kubiak with the Texans, had lengthy tenures after opening with three non-winning seasons (Garrett opened with three 8-8 campaigns, while two of Kubiak’s first three seasons finished 8-8). Both coaches reached the playoffs in their fourth seasons with their respective Texas franchise. I expect Broncos ownership to be patient with the rebuilding process given their investments in the training facility, stadium, coaching staff and roster and their commitment to Payton, but four seasons seems like a reasonable limit of seasons without a winning record. Payton knows as much, as he told the media after the Wilson-Jarrett Stidham quarterback swap that without winning over the next couple of seasons, a new coach will be speaking at the Broncos podium a couple times a week.
That timeframe aligns with Nix’s rookie contract with the Broncos. Aside from Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs, teams that have a quarterback on the low-cost rookie contracts have a huge advantage when it comes to building their team. Denver has an excellent opportunity to build an offense around Nix’s strengths, while fortifying a defense that can keep the Broncos in games and live up to the franchise’s high standard.
Nix joins a Broncos quarterback group with a couple other options with starting experience, so Denver will have at least two in-house options if Nix doesn’t turn out to be a fit in orange and blue. Jarrett Stidham returns after starting the last two games of the 2023 season, while former second overall pick Zach Wilson brings potential and playmaking ability (and a truly frightening track record) after being acquired by the Broncos via a low-cost trade this offseason. Making the playoffs with Stidham or Wilson isn’t out of the question if Denver can get the rest of its roster right, but the Broncos’ investment in Nix should give him the edge in emerging as the franchise’s quarterback of the future.
The Broncos have been stuck in quarterback purgatory for most of the past decade — mainstay left tackle Garett Bolles’ admirable attempt to name all of his starting quarterbacks last season demonstrates as much – but Payton and general manager George Paton took decisive action this offseason to align the quarterbacks in their building with their offensive philosophy. Whether those moves amount to a franchise quarterback and true contender will be the story to watch in Denver these next couple of seasons and will dictate whether Payton’s second head-coaching tenure will be as glorious as his first.
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