At long last, the NFL Draft has arrived. Before the festivities in Detroit, my friend Christian Clark and I are sharing our insights and predictions about the draft’s first round, from the buzz around the much-hyped quarterback class to the potential impact of the first-round picks on next NFL season.
Which team in need of a quarterback is most likely to move up in Round 1 for a passer?
Christian: The consensus seems to say Minnesota here and I can’t disagree too much. To play “Devil’s Advocate,” let’s travel to Sin City (pun fully intended). The Las Vegas Raiders simply cannot go into the 2024 NFL Season with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew as their top two options. If either Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels falls out of the top three selections, expect the Arizona Cardinals to be fielding some INTENSE phone calls from a couple QB needy teams. J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix, Jr. would be options if they stay put but I’m not fully convinced either player is worth a top ten selection.
John: I considered going with Denver here, but after the Broncos’ acquisition of Zach Wilson to compete with Jarrett Stidham for the starting role, I don’t think Denver will have the dire urgency to move up for a quarterback that I might have expected at the beginning of the offseason. I could see the Raiders looking in Michael Penix, Jr.’s direction and waiting a bit on the quarterback position, so for the purposes of this question, I’ll go with the Vikings. Sam Darnold won’t replicate Kirk Cousins’ production as the starter in Minneapolis, but he could serve as a prime bridge and mentor to the Vikings’ quarterback of the future. Minnesota is in more of a win-now position than either AFC West “competitor,” and that timeline will be reflected in its draft-day aggressiveness.
How many quarterbacks will make it into the top 10 of the Draft?
Christian: Four quarterbacks seems like the obvious answer for me. Williams, Daniels, and Maye are locks for the top ten. After that, the consensus seems to be J.J. McCarthy at #4. Minnesota, Denver, or Las Vegas are the suitors to watch for the Michigan star’s services. I didn’t buy into the Will Levis hype last year and he fell out of the first round. Perhaps the same will happen for McCarthy. With all the QB-needy teams, I think it makes too much sense for someone not to take a flier the second tier of QBs in Round One.
John: I’ll go with three as my answer here. I anticipate USC’s Caleb Williams, UNC’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels (my starting quarterback in my PAC-12 only fantasy football league a couple years ago) filling the draft’s top three slots. After that? I’m not sure quite what to expect, with McCarthy a contender to go fourth and Bo Nix and Michael Penix, Jr. as intriguing first-round options. My prediction is that the next seven players will be non-quarterbacks, and then the fun will begin in the double digits.
Which prospective player-team fit in the top 10 would you be most excited to watch next season?
Christian: Really great question- it’s hard to stop my bias from showing but I’ll do it anyways. Typically the Patriots don’t make conventional selections but with head coach Jerod Mayo taking over for future Hall of Famer Bill Belichick, expect a new signal-caller to follow. Drake Maye on the New England Patriots seems like the most probable scenario but having him in purple with the Vikings would be the best spot for Maye in terms of instant-success.
While I don’t think Maye will fall further than pick #3, stranger things have happened. The Herbert comparisons are very fair and I see both players having similar careers when it’s all said and done. While the Vikings have Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at receiver waiting in the wings, the Patriots would need to acquire a receiver (or two) to help Maye out. Minnesota needs just above-average QB play to get to the playoffs in 2024 and I think either Maye or Daniels would get them there.
John: The Chargers have amped up the excitement in their facility with the hiring of head coach Jim Harbaugh from the national champion Michigan Wolverines, but their offseason has been much less awe-inspiring in the wide receivers group. Veteran receiver Keenan Allen laughed at a prospective pay cut and is now in Chicago, while former top-10 pick Mike Williams is now with the New York Jets.
Los Angeles could start fresh with a player whose collegiate track record and skill set is off the charts for his position — Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. The past couple seasons have shown us that rookie receivers can make a massive impact from Week 1, from the Rams’ Puka Nacua to the Vikings’ Justin Jefferson, and I could see Harrison teaming up with Justin Herbert to go after the newly-established rookie receiving record.
Who is one player that could make a difference in the Super Bowl picture this season?
Christian: To answer that question, we have to think about teams that are actually in a realistic position to make the Super Bowl next season. I’d say there are eight to ten teams that have a chance as things stand right now. The NFC is wide-open but the AFC runs through Kansas City. Unless you have an elite QB, you have no chance to beat them. The Chiefs are the obvious choice to get a difference maker in the form of a receiver but I think a team like Buffalo or Cincinnati could get a player to help narrow the gap. Josh Allen needs a receiver desperately and I think GM Brandon Beane will deliver the goods. I feel confident that either Brian Thomas, Jr., AD Mitchell, or Ladd McConkey will be headed to Orchard Park in just a few days. Buffalo’s Super Bowl window isn’t “closed” but if they don’t act fast, they could be passed by a team like the Texans who are developing a contender in short order.
John: I agree with Christian that this question requires an evaluation of each team’s prospects of actually making the big game, though I see the NFC as more top-heavy than the AFC for this upcoming season. My pick for this question combines this prospect’s draft range at the back half of the first round and his championship pedigree and positional value. Georgia tackle Amarius Mims could be a missing piece for a contender in need of offensive line reinforcements or a younger option at the position, and his upside should be tantalizing for playoff-caliber teams looking for a home-run pick. I’d love for Baltimore or Dallas to send in a draft card with the former Bulldog’s name.
What team are you most interested to watch in the NFL Draft’s first round?
Christian: Detroit Lions- GM Brad Holmes, the 2023 PWFA Executive of the Year, has knocked it out of the park in recent years helping restore the roar in Detroit. With a roster that is already constructed as a bona-fide Super Bowl contender, it’s very possible that getting two more impact players in this year’s draft can put them over the top and reach their first Super Bowl in franchise history. A dynamic edge alongside Hutchinson or even a wide receiver to go with Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta would be massive. The Lions really can’t go wrong here.
John: For me, it’s the Kansas City Chiefs. Having a legendary quarterback in Patrick Mahomes cures a lot of ills — just look how different his Super Bowl rosters have been — and his receiving corps specifically has lost some key contributors in recent years and still been able to uphold the Chiefs’ Super Bowl favorite status. Defense could be an option as well, as cornerback L’Jarius Sneed headed to Tennessee this offseason. Whichever way the Chiefs go, it’s terrifying to think of the back-to-back Super Bowl champions somehow getting better this offseason. With some real needs across the roster, Kansas City’s room for improvement is a scary reality for the rest of the AFC, and the draft could be a chance for the Chiefs to really capitalize with their 32nd overall pick.
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