An NBA graphic from (of course) Sports Illustrated Kids that has stuck with me over the years depicted each of the NBA Finals contenders as pieces on a Risk board, each with their own strengths and weaknesses. That twist on the popular board game represents my favorite type of playoffs — fields with all sorts of teams, each with their own unique styles and characteristics, pitted against each other and battling it out for a title. While some NBA fans may prefer the simplicity of the Warriors-Cavaliers reruns in the late 2010s, I’m all for parity and intrigue in each round of the playoffs.
The East appears to be a one-horse race, but dangerous contenders lurk from top to bottom. The top-seeded Boston Celtics should certainly be the prohibitive favorites. But Joel Embiid’s 76ers and the battle-tested Eastern Conference reigning champions, the Miami Heat, lurk in the seventh and eighth seeds, and dangerous young teams like the Pacers, Magic and Cavaliers could complicate the Celtics’ path to the championship. And that’s without mentioning the last Eastern Conference team to win a title, the Milwaukee Bucks.
Still, the Western Conference takes the intrigue to another level. The top team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, is also the playoff’s youngest, while the second-seeded Timberwolves haven’t won a playoff series in two decades. Even with the ascensions of Oklahoma City and Minnesota, the Nuggets and MVP favorite Nikola Jokic have to be considered the team to beat. It’s difficult to count out a single team in the rest of the Western Conference playoff field, from Luka Doncic’s Dallas Mavericks to Kawhi Leonard’s Los Angeles Clippers to the supposed superteam in Phoenix. Oh, and LeBron James and the Lakers survived the play-in and could make noise in the coming weeks.
It’s not difficult to envision the Celtics or Nuggets rolling to the title, but both teams will have plenty to prove over the next two months to meet in June. These are the five storylines I’ll be watching.
- Finals contenders in the play-in?
Last year, the Miami Heat hit their stride at the right time and made the NBA Finals as the lowest-seeded team in the Eastern Conference playoff field. The Heat are back in the eighth spot this season, but they’re not the only play-in survivor that could make noise. Philadelphia has been a perennial playoff disappointment but is more battle-tested in the postseason than their first-round opponent, the New York Knicks, and center Joel Embiid will have a prime opportunity to prove his playoff mettle. In the West, LeBron’s Lakers will have a difficult test in the Denver Nuggets, but betting against LeBron James in the playoffs isn’t easy (rooting against the Lakers, on the other hand, is one of my favorite pastimes). All of those three teams could be considered NBA Finals contenders despite their uninspiring regular season performances, especially if they can topple the Finals favorites in the opening round.
- Nuggets well-positioned for championship defense
For all the talk about how the East is “the Celtics and everyone else,” Denver should feel great about its playoff chances. Center Nikola Jokic has been the league’s best player over the past four seasons and could seal another MVP award, and his supporting cast proved its merit in last year’s run to the franchise’s first NBA championship. A run to the Finals could require series victories against LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Luka Doncic/Shai Gilgeous-Alexander/Kawhi Leonard. The Nuggets seem up to the challenge and could become the league’s first back-to-back champion since the Golden State Warriors.
- Sixth-straight season with a new champion a possibility
Playoffs are always more fun when the championship-winning team hasn’t won in decades, or even a single time in franchise history. That was the case last season when the Denver Nuggets captured their first NBA championship weeks after securing their first NBA Finals appearance. Which teams have a legitimate chance to satiate the title appetites of their fans? In the Eastern Conference, the second-seeded New York Knicks make sense as a team that could inspire pandemonium with a deep playoff run. Though undermanned, the Jalen Brunson-led squad should pose a tough test for any opponent, though the Celtics and Bucks will be difficult to beat. New York’s opportunity for its first NBA Finals championship since 1973 seems remote, but as the two seed, the Knicks have good reason for playoff optimism. In the West, there’s a couple of long-tortured fan bases with Finals dreams that may not be entirely delusional. The first, second and fourth seeds in the West (Oklahoma City, Minnesota and the Los Angeles Clippers) have combined for a single NBA Finals loss in their current homes, and the Thunder’s run to the Finals in 2013 still haunts the franchise. The Phoenix Suns have the most talent in franchise history behind Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, but they face an uphill battle as the sixth seed. There’s one other deserving fanbase that is long due for a winner, but I’ll get to them later.
- Which superstar will eradicate his shaky playoff record?
Playoffs define legacies, and an NBA title would go a long way in securing several NBA superstars’ bona fides among their generation’s elite. I’m ruling out Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, Miami’s Jimmy Butler, the Lakers’ LeBron James and Anthony Davis, Denver’s Nikola Jokic and the Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard due to their past playoff heroics, but that leaves the door open for some big names. Will Boston’s Jayson Tatum stake a claim to best player in the league if he can return the Celtics to championship glory? Could Dallas’ Luka Doncic do the same by carrying the Mavs to a title? What about Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid, who leads one of the least talented Sixer teams of his career into the playoffs? I’ll also touch on Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, who are not technically perennial playoff losers but could shift the narrative by bringing an NBA title to the desert. On the younger side of the superstar spectrum, watching a young guy like Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton, Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards or Orlando’s Paolo Banchero spark a deep run could take their star profile to another stratosphere. Speaking of that last guy…
- The Orlando Magic
I’m not going to apologize for making the Orlando Magic my most-anticipated storyline. The fact is, I’ve been waiting for over a decade for this: the Magic with a promising young core and an eminently winnable first-round matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Forward, Rookie of the Year and 2024 All Star Paolo Banchero is the offensive force that makes Orlando’s sub-par attack at least watchable, but where this team is most fun is in its suffocating defense and sheer effort. Guard Jalen Suggs’ reinvention as a potent three-point shooter and potential All-Defense First Team selection has been the story of the season, and Jonathan Isaac’s return to the hardwood and usage as the ultimate defensive weapon establishes the tone in the frontcourt. This team has very little playoff experience/success, offense or road wins against quality opponents to speak of heading into the playoffs. Still, the bar for success is manageable. If Orlando can win its first playoff series since 2010, a season that has unexpectedly altered the franchise’s trajectory would be a fantastic outcome for a roster that has its best years still ahead.
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